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12-05-2021 03:40
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Season 78 · Week 6 · Day 37
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Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
Just opened this thread to discuss the Youth Potential tool and share your experiences, also to try to figure it out a bit.

So I have a weird case, I have this player that I'm training as a keeper:



And I got this scout report for him



So my guess is my project of keeper will be a waste and will max out at 8 keeping, but here's what I'm puzzle about, his low skills are shooting/pi at 2 stars but I already know his keeping will be at least 8.... so it seems for this tool, "2 stars = 8 balls"?

I really like that we can check out current youths btw.
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Re: Youth Potential Tool

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ozteam wrote:
I agree with mihairo that we should have a system where there wouldn't only be 2 available options for LP. But I also like it if there is still some randomness in the system or overlap in possible outcomes between different levels. We don't want something that is too simple to figure out.


I understand and this is my last post. Thank you for leasing everything I wrote.

Only one question remaining.
To have 4HP as 9 and 2LP as 8, isn't it a bit stretched?
See the player above.
Aren't we suppose to have a more useful TA rather than a random TA?
Because right now 2LP means random skills from 4 to 8.

Maybe in time we will see the point of having such a big gap - or not.

Best regards.

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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The information you get from 2LP is probability of maxing some skill on some level. There is much higher probability that 2LP player will max out in his LP skill at 4,5,6 or 7 (any of this numbers I think that the highest probability is with 5 and 6 but made no calculations) than on 8. So you don't get exact number of balls for each player but if you will train many payers then probability of getting 2LP and 8 balls is so low that you can safely assume looking at the player that he won't get the 8 balls in 2LP skill and treat the rest as an exception. As I said I didn't calculate anything but I am pretty sure that this number is below 0.01% (1 in 10 000 players).

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[AUS]
President
I hadn’t seen this before..

A player on the transfer market now #210289446. He’s 3 HP Ball Control and Aerial Passing.

The player is maxed at 8BC but will be 10 AP. I knew both stats didn’t have to both max on the same number of balls but I’d never seen a 2 balls difference before only 1. Is this common, has anyone else seen many examples of this?

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
chucky06 wrote:
I hadn’t seen this before..

A player on the transfer market now #210289446. He’s 3 HP Ball Control and Aerial Passing.

The player is maxed at 8BC but will be 10 AP.


As far as I know, if a 3 HP player maxes on one of the skills at 8, the other skill is guaranteed to be a 10.

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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mihairo wrote:
I've already seen a 4HP 9 9 player. This means at least 5 nines to be a 4HP.
This also means that 3HP can't reach 5 nines.


Just a little update :)
Iwan Makowski id: 207912062
currently on the transfer list will have (at least) 5x9 and is 3HP which debunks theory that 5x9 is 4HP.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[Eesti]
President
kostrzak16 wrote:
Just a little update :)
Iwan Makowski id: 207912062
currently on the transfer list will have (at least) 5x9 and is 3HP which debunks theory that 5x9 is 4HP.


What IF set plays wont go on nine? Sad to see that stupid skill is one of the HP! Some players even retire before they are able to max. player at set plays. :P

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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kostrzak16 wrote:
Just a little update :)
Iwan Makowski id: 207912062
currently on the transfer list will have (at least) 5x9 and is 3HP which debunks theory that 5x9 is 4HP.


It' not 5x9, it would be 6x9 or (5x9 + 1x10) for 3 stars. Woooww 🙂

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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zargan123 wrote:
It' not 5x9, it would be 6x9 or (5x9 + 1x10) for 3 stars. Woooww 🙂


Sorry I thought tackling is 9. It's 8. So it would be 5x9 or 4x9 + 1x 10 for 3 stars. 🙂

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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mihairo wrote:

3HP maximum
9 9 9 9 8
10 9 9 8 8
10 10 8 8 8


Let's see if the modelling is right, as Miles is 3 HP and going for his 2nd 10th ball in AP. If he gets to 9 or higher in any other skill then, you'll need to either to rethink, or he was wrongly scout as a 3HP and should of been 4HP.

Myles Kile

Age: 24

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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kostrzak16 wrote:
Just a little update :)
Iwan Makowski id: 207912062
currently on the transfer list will have (at least) 5x9 and is 3HP which debunks theory that 5x9 is 4HP.


Thank you.
I hope I have given you a starting point.
I never a saw a 5 nines 3HP until now.
If 3HP is 5 nines, then 4HP is what? 6 nines? Interesting...

scruttino wrote:
Let's see if the modelling is right, as Miles is 3 HP and going for his 2nd 10th ball in AP. If he gets to 9 or higher in any other skill then, you'll need to either to rethink, or he was wrongly scout as a 3HP and should of been 4HP.

Myles Kile

Age: 24



The model could be right.
I mean it's right for what I've seen so far.
As you can see with the player above, I see absolutely no difference between a 5 nines 4HP and a 5 nines 3HP.

There are 2 possibilities:
A. There is a model
B. The scout isn't 100% accurate.

This does it for me.
Have fun and enjoy!

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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mihairo wrote:
Thank you.
I hope I have given you a starting point.
I never a saw a 5 nines 3HP until now.
If 3HP is 5 nines, then 4HP is what? 6 nines? Interesting...



The model could be right.
I mean it's right for what I've seen so far.
As you can see with the player above, I see absolutely no difference between a 5 nines 4HP and a 5 nines 3HP.

There are 2 possibilities:
A. There is a model
B. The scout isn't 100% accurate.

This does it for me.
Have fun and enjoy!


Alden Robinson

Age: 26



3HP on BC and LP. If these should be his highest skills he has to get at least 9 on both skills and you'll see a 5x9 3HP player. We will see soon

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[Eesti]
President
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=transfer&sub=players&u=208167982

3HP 10 10 9 guy.

Ant: Youth Potential Tool

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Henrik Fekete

Age: 26



This one is probably an interesting player to scout. For the moment i'm deciding if I would like to give him to the siencesimulations or go for the money..

What do you guys think that will happen?

This is my guess:

Pi will max at 7.
Pass ends up at 4
Shoot is gonna be a 9
Bc is possible to go to 8 (but I think it will max at 7)
AE will max at 7

Ant: Youth Potential Tool

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drughii wrote:
Henrik Fekete

Age: 26



This one is probably an interesting player to scout. For the moment i'm deciding if I would like to give him to the siencesimulations or go for the money..

What do you guys think that will happen?

This is my guess:

Pi will max at 7.
Pass ends up at 4
Shoot is gonna be a 9
Bc is possible to go to 8 (but I think it will max at 7)
AE will max at 7


3HP sh and tack
2HP AE and passing

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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To bo honest we only know that shooting will be 9. AE will probably max out at 7. Passing no idea tbh but quite low (probably 4-7). Every other skill will be 7 or 8.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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https://www.managerzone.com/?p=forum&sub=topic&sport=soccer&forum_id=13&topic_id=12345779&post_id=44357263

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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What do you think about this one?

Babhruvahana Paappanen

Age: 23



Speed and inteligence 3 high stars. Passing and set plays low 1 star.

He doesn't look too bad, I hope the ball controll and shooting which is still "Green" is assigned to the HIGH potential? I hope his ball controll will go to 8-9.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[BotP]
President
Does someone know if HP4 - LP3 players exist? or the low limit is always 1 or 2

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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floodish wrote:
Does someone know if HP4 - LP3 players exist? or the low limit is always 1 or 2


No one in the world has seen a LP3 player.

Thousands upon thousands of LP2 players, but not a single one any higher.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[BotP]
President
scruttino wrote:
No one in the world has seen a LP3 player.

Thousands upon thousands of LP2 players, but not a single one any higher.


I found the news regarding this topic and even its very rare but not impossible to see someday a LP3 o LP4



LINK NEWS: https://www.managerzone.com/?p=news&nid=95906

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
1 star = 53% + 2 star =47% = 100%

So I guess the chances of seeing a 3/4 stars LP considering no one got a single one yet are around 0.0000000000000000000001% if not less

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[BotP]
President
darkline wrote:
1 star = 53% + 2 star =47% = 100%

So I guess the chances of seeing a 3/4 stars LP considering no one got a single one yet are around 0.0000000000000000000001% if not less


Yes maybe we never see one. And also with all new teams that just get abandon asking for new youths maybe they fall into a place nobody will ever know they ever exist :(

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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Yeah, you're more likely to have a 4HP player max out on 4 speed, stamina or ball control than find a 3-4LP player

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
This is an ex-player of mine...



So he's an HP3 Heading/BC, LP1 on passing/set pieces and currently training his 8th speed....

This pretty much throws any theory out the windows, is an LP1 with 1 skill reaching 9 & 2 other skills 8 (speed could go to 9?)

All I can think off, is that the scout is not accurate so some players identified as L1 could be L2, some H3 are H4, some H4 are H3.... I know some people like this scouting method but to be honest, it was easier for me to train players with the previous YTC and also it kind of ruined the market, because in the past you could buy youths at decent prices as there was an element of risk and uncertainty, now even if the scout isn't accurate, people just pays small fortunes for players with a good scout report.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
Never mind, it fits the theory, apparently I was just lucky enough to train all the HP skills I guess....

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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The only not accurate thing in the new scout report is training speed stars. I have 1 start player that trains faster than 2 star player and 3 star player that trains faster than 4 star player.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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I've got a player with 2 star low potential in stamina and heading. Said player has just maxed at 8 in stamina. So I'm presuming heading will max low, 4 or 5 maybe.
If one of his LP skills is 8 does that mean all his other skills must go to at least 8?!
Is it possible that the scout report has identified the wrong LP skill. Or are the skills identified always right. Just the number of stars might be inaccurate.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
matt_293 wrote:
I've got a player with 2 star low potential in stamina and heading. Said player has just maxed at 8 in stamina. So I'm presuming heading will max low, 4 or 5 maybe.
If one of his LP skills is 8 does that mean all his other skills must go to at least 8?!
Is it possible that the scout report has identified the wrong LP skill. Or are the skills identified always right. Just the number of stars might be inaccurate.


You're in luck because as you said, it means that all other skills will go to at least 8.... if the theory is correct, it means heading won't go past 5.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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darkline wrote:
You're in luck because as you said, it means that all other skills will go to at least 8.... if the theory is correct, it means heading won't go past 5.


Thanks! Shame hes a keeper really as I could have done with an outfield player with minimum 8's in everything. Whats the thinking behind the other skill not going above 5? Is 13 balls the max number of combined balls the two low potential skills can be?

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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There are too few examples to tell. Players with LP 7-8 usually don't have 2nd LP maxed. My guess is that LP 2* with both skills at 7 is possbile but extramely rare :)

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
Maybe there's a very slim chance, there are a few exceptions I believe but the working theory is good enough for 99.99% of the players, so when trying to sort out maxings of a player you just need to assume your player will be in the 99.99% group and not the 0.01% that might be the exception.

matt_293 wrote:
Thanks! Shame hes a keeper really as I could have done with an outfield player with minimum 8's in everything.


If you didn't train him as a keeper, it might be worth to train him as a field player because 8 is the minimum of any skill but potentially he can have 9s and 10s accross the board

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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matt_293 wrote:
I've got a player with 2 star low potential in stamina and heading. Said player has just maxed at 8 in stamina. So I'm presuming heading will max low, 4 or 5 maybe.
If one of his LP skills is 8 does that mean all his other skills must go to at least 8?!
Is it possible that the scout report has identified the wrong LP skill. Or are the skills identified always right. Just the number of stars might be inaccurate.


I’m really interested in your player as a case study. He must have been a 4 star high potential, right?

As Darkline suggested you should take him off keeping, he should max out at 8 at least in all other skills except heading. Could be a world class player? Can you share his details with us?

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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bleitzel wrote:
I’m really interested in your player as a case study. He must have been a 4 star high potential, right?

As Darkline suggested you should take him off keeping, he should max out at 8 at least in all other skills except heading. Could be a world class player? Can you share his details with us?




He has 3 star high potential in keeping and BC.
He's already reached 10 in keeping so presuming BC will be either 8 or 9.
Speed is maxed at 8.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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matt_293 wrote:


He has 3 star high potential in keeping and BC.
He's already reached 10 in keeping so presuming BC will be either 8 or 9.
Speed is maxed at 8.


I'm presuming that everything will either max at 8 or above? I would love to know his progression

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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Does the order of which the potential is on the card?

e.g.
3* HP - Passing
Shooting

2* LP - Keeping
Set Plays

Does the order mean that Passing will always be either - the same OR - higher than shooting?

Does the order mean that Keeping will always be either - the same OR - higher than Set Plays?

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
The order is irrelevant, you can get an HP speed/stamina and stamina could be higher than speed.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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mayunga wrote:
I'm presuming that everything will either max at 8 or above? I would love to know his progression


Yea 8 or above in everything else apart from heading which is the other LP skill. Or thats the theory anyway

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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kostrzak16 wrote:
There are too few examples to tell. Players with LP 7-8 usually don't have 2nd LP maxed. My guess is that LP 2* with both skills at 7 is possbile but extramely rare :)


Ok so I've finally found such player Cesare Tiberio id: 209606803 (currently on LT).

This proves that both LP skills can be 7 and that there are no LP3 players (or maybe player need 8 in both LP skills :D ? )

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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So I've just seen a HP 3* of Tackling and Stamina and they both hit 10 balls.

Armağan Üstün

Age: 25

Currently on the transfer market

Has anyone else seen this?

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
kostrzak16 wrote:
Ok so I've finally found such player Cesare Tiberio id: 209606803 (currently on LT).

This proves that both LP skills can be 7 and that there are no LP3 players (or maybe player need 8 in both LP skills :D ? )


I guess LP uses the sames parameters as HP, that would mean that a 3LP will have 9/9 on the low skills.... there is a mathematical chance one such player might appear, but I think no player like this appeared since MZ opened for bussiness almost 20 years ago, so we'll probably never see a 3/4LP player, for practical purposes only 1LP/2LP exist.

IMO, the parameters for the LP skills should be modified so the scout makes use of the 3/4 stars LP to give a more accurate report because right now is binary, is either 1 (poor) or 2 (good)


mayunga wrote:
So I've just seen a HP 3* of Tackling and Stamina and they both hit 10 balls.

Armağan Üstün

Age: 25

Currently on the transfer market

Has anyone else seen this?


That's ok, but when this happens it means that no other skill will go over 8

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[RAF]
President
Hi, guys!

I'm an old timer and have little time for forum topics but I do have a curiosity in relation to scout reports:
Has anyone encountered in a player to have 2 skills displayed as HP, indifferent of no. of stars, and have another skill with moreballs than the two HP skills? Not the same no., this we all saw quite a bunch, but with more balls.

For the rest, I think the new YPT is awesome but a game changer. And I do agree you can still have pleasant or unpleasant surprises, especially in 2HP/LP players but, more dramatically when they happen, in 4HP players having also 1LP. There the margins are so permissive that anything can happen.

Looking forward to an answer to my question. Thanks!

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[AUS]
President
civilu wrote:
Hi, guys!

I'm an old timer and have little time for forum topics but I do have a curiosity in relation to scout reports:
Has anyone encountered in a player to have 2 skills displayed as HP, indifferent of no. of stars, and have another skill with moreballs than the two HP skills? Not the same no., this we all saw quite a bunch, but with more balls.

For the rest, I think the new YPT is awesome but a game changer. And I do agree you can still have pleasant or unpleasant surprises, especially in 2HP/LP players but, more dramatically when they happen, in 4HP players having also 1LP. There the margins are so permissive that anything can happen.

Looking forward to an answer to my question. Thanks!


I check the forum quite regularly and look at players and I’ve never seen a player with a skill greater than the recognised HP skills. I don’t think it’s possible to be higher, only equal too

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
chucky06 wrote:
I check the forum quite regularly and look at players and I’ve never seen a player with a skill greater than the recognised HP skills. I don’t think it’s possible to be higher, only equal too


Yep, it's only possible to be equal but not higher.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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kostrzak16 wrote:
The only not accurate thing in the new scout report is training speed stars. I have 1 start player that trains faster than 2 star player and 3 star player that trains faster than 4 star player.


The speed is the average for all skills.

Speed depends on the current level of your skill. And it varies for every skill. Not just keeping or play intelligence.

But all in all you get a good approximation of 7-8 balls/season for a 4* with a TC. And so on ... 6/season for average players.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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darkline wrote:
I guess LP uses the sames parameters as HP,[quote]

Why should it be so ? No

Once you understand that everything is obvious.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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A 42* can be XXXXXXXX744

You will see one one day, if MZ still exists. Lol

So there is no big need for 43*. But one might exist too.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
charlesbee wrote:
A 42* can be XXXXXXXX744

You will see one one day, if MZ still exists. Lol

So there is no big need for 43*. But one might exist too.


Re: Youth Potential Tool

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Funny but it's pure math. And rather easy in fact.

Still the 8 x X yes statistically it's as you say. ;) Lol

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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The coders and game designers of MZ have been really pro here. Deep and simple.

There is absolutetly no need for convoluted big data or superfluous added randomness, since the players are created with randomness, maybe weighted, but you don't know the dice results.

Till you don't know it's random for you. "Randomness" is often for a part what you don't know. It's the code entropy of an underlying system you don't see.

Since the skill scales are reajusted by the evolution of the sim internal parameters to become closer to real sport, it's unnecessary to know what a 7 or 8 really means à priori, you can inject the distribution you like. It's arbitrary. It just has to reflect more or less what the managers are accustomed to see in other soccer games. 0 speed does not mean a static player.

I would certainly have created the same exact scout report simple sub-system. That's why I could guess it quasi immediately, as soon as I came back.

"Keep it simple idiot", It's how a good coder thinks. Simplicity brings efficiency, robustness, coherence with the rest of the game and intuitive for the newbies, deep for the "pro" gamers.

Simple algorithms and deep thinking of the complementarity with the other parts, or the consequences in behaviour of a game design element enable "magic" easy solutions.

That is the power of the underlying maths. Just like the Checkers or Go rules are simple, the game is deeper than chess however.

Now we have a puzzle and poker game in the game. And it perfectly fits the other parts of MZ. Transfer market, formation, and tactics.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
For me is simple, field players with a 3-1 or 4-1 scout unless they come with an exceptional skill combo are not worth training, players with 3-2 or 4-2 are worth training as long as their LP isn't stamina/speed/pi or a poor combo of skills like HP shooting with LP control.

Best thing to do with a 3-1/4-1 player is try to max out four skills and if you're lucky and he goes far, turn him into cash on the market near the end of the season when he's turning 21 y/ol
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