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28-02-2021 20:21
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Season 77 · Week 8 · Day 55
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Football » English » ManagerZone talk

Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
Just opened this thread to discuss the Youth Potential tool and share your experiences, also to try to figure it out a bit.

So I have a weird case, I have this player that I'm training as a keeper:



And I got this scout report for him



So my guess is my project of keeper will be a waste and will max out at 8 keeping, but here's what I'm puzzle about, his low skills are shooting/pi at 2 stars but I already know his keeping will be at least 8.... so it seems for this tool, "2 stars = 8 balls"?

I really like that we can check out current youths btw.
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Re: Youth Potential Tool

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yeah, i got a 4 star player in some skills and people raising the price drastically. he's not even trained in those skills. yet, he's got a bidding war going.

before, would've probably got 5k for him at best.

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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My Final Hypothesis.

4 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is higher than 35
3 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 31-35
2 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 26-30
1 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is below 25

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
engerek01 wrote:
2 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 26-30


Don't think so.... saw a player on the market maxed at 5 stamina and he had 2 stars low skills and stamina wasn't one of them....

So even if the 2 low skills went up to 5, you'll be at 15 balls for 3 skills......

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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darkline wrote:
Don't think so.... saw a player on the market maxed at 5 stamina and he had 2 stars low skills and stamina wasn't one of them....

So even if the 2 low skills went up to 5, you'll be at 15 balls for 3 skills......


Can you find that player please? What you are saying is highly unlikely based on my own data.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
engerek01 wrote:
Can you find that player please? What you are saying is highly unlikely based on my own data.


Couldn't find him, sorry... I'm looking at the market right now, if I find anything similar I'll post it but unfortunately not many examples as people just usually fire players with bad maxings.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
Ok, didn't find the player but got someone that's out of range of your theory:

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=players&pid=208322039&tid=280565

This guy has 2 star low skills on set plays / shooting:

He's already maxed at 5 shooting, 6 speed, 7 tackling, that means his set pieces has to be less than 6... let's assume 6 then.

5+6+6+7=24 , that's 2 balls short of the 26 of your theory...

In any case, I think we'll have more info when players start maxing out and we see 3 or 4 different maxings on players.

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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@darkline, that's actually a very good example thank you.

The line between 1 and 2 star totals were fuzzy because it was based on interpolation rather than facts. Also I saw someone saying 1 star reached 7 balls, which would mean

4+7+7+7 = 25 AT LEAST. I never actually saw the proof of that so I am going back to my initial values that 1 Star can be 6 maximum.

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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Your hyphothesis engerek is slightly wrong actually. There is a player on the market that will have at least 33 balls in 4 skills and he is 2 star. Also there is a player with at least 9+9+9+9 that is 3 star. But I think 10+9+9+8 can be 4 star, if not then my theory is:

4 stars = sum of 4 best skills is over 36
3 stars = sum of 4 best skills is 34/35/36
2 star = sum of 4 best skills below 34.

I challange anyone to prove me wrong :)

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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Omar Witt

Age: 25



4* PI/Keeping
1* BC/SP
4* Youth Speed

how does this fit into your hypothesis engerek?

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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"Omar Witt is a great prospect and could develop into an elite player. We should find a place in the squad for him." ^for player above.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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I agree with the percent chance hypothesis for the scouts reports. I think it’s the one that makes more sense

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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The effects of the new system is shown on the TL already. Just witnessed an 19 yo, 42 total balls, with 8 speed maxed, unmaxed to other skills but under 7 balls, beeing sold for almost 9 Million EURO!!! Speed and keep was a 2* LP.

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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Since the hypothesis based on 4 skills was rebut pretty quickly I decided to enhance it 1 step further.


4 Stars: Sum of 5 skills is 46 and above (Min 9)
3 Stars: Sum of 5 skills is between 41-45 (Min 8)
2 Stars: Sum of 5 skills is between 31-40 (Min 7 for HP, Max 8 for LP)
1 Stars: Sum of 5 skills is 30 and below.

Note that the sum takes 5 highest skills for High Potential and 5 Lowest skills for Low Potential.

Now, Let's tune that down :)

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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But why you gave up on 4 skills hypothesis?

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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kostrzak16 wrote:
But why you gave up on 4 skills hypothesis?


Because its current state is this...

4 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is 37 and above
3 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 34-36
2 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 24-33
1 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is 23 and below.

Now that still seems like a range that is acceptable but in the original announcement, the news stated some ratios.

Drop Rates
Highest potential
1 star: very rare
2 stars: ~45%
3 stars: ~51%
4 stars: ~4%

Lowest potential
1 star: ~53%
2 stars: ~47%
3-4 stars: very rare

We see here that for HP, 2 and 3 Star drop rates are almost identical (45% vs 51%) and the 34-36 range for 3 Stars seems too narrow to achieve a 51% ratio.

I haven't completely discarded it. Crew might actually listened to my "skill ratio" suggestion I had made earlier in which case that might be possible.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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kostrzak16 wrote:
But why you gave up on 4 skills hypothesis?


I like Engerek01's analysis. It makes us think.

I'm thinking that 1 star LP 4 7 7 7 is much better than 2 stars LP 5 6 6 7.
It doesn't even need ball counting to see it.
Also, it doesn't make any sense to have 1 star 4 7 7 7 and 2 stars 5 6 6 7.
They both should be 1 star LP IMO.
This way, when you see 2 stars LP, it should mean something.
With this example they both don't mean anything. I hope Crew sees this example.
Sorry for the intrusion.
Regards.

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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engerek01 wrote:
the 34-36 range for 3 Stars seems too narrow to achieve a 51% ratio.


It looks like but I don't think it is so narrow. Remember that we are taking 4 best skills and possibility that player's 4 best skills are at least 8 is quite high. It is like when rolling 4 dices, possibility to get 12-13 is higher than 4-10. When you look at TL for players with >60 balls , many would fall under 3 stars and even if they have less in top4, they still could have 9-10 in set pieces or keeping.

Also I don't think CREW's ratios are true. Just look at transfer list, there much more 4 star players than 4%. Even in my team 7 out of 23 are 4stars + there are probably no players with LP 3/4 stars or HP 1 star and CREW said "Very rare" which should mean that there are at least some :)

I still think skaut raport based on 4 skills is more likely but can't be sure until someone point me to the player that doesn't fall under my calculations.

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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Does anybody have 4 HP and 3 LP? Or see a player?

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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engerek01 wrote:
the 34-36 range for 3 Stars seems too narrow to achieve a 51% ratio.

kostrzak16 wrote:
It looks like but I don't think it is so narrow. Remember that we are taking 4 best skills and possibility that player's 4 best skills are at least 8 is quite high. It is like when rolling 4 dices, possibility to get 12-13 is higher than 4-10...


Possibility maybe wide but the probability is narrow. The exact calculation is as follows:

Assuming every skill maxing has the same probability...

Taking 4 skill into consideration:
Total possible combinations that sum up 34 --> 84
Total possible combinations that sum up 35 --> 56
Total possible combinations that sum up 36 --> 35
34-36 range has 175 combinations.

The total number of possibilities are 7^4 = 2401
So The Ratio would be 175 / 2401 = 0.072

Which means 7.2% chance which is dramatically below the 51% chance that is stated in the news.

The 51% chance for 3 star is only possible if Crew implemented my suggestion to the belly which was something like;

Skill Maxing chance
4 5%
5 10%
6 20%
7 30%
8 20%
9 10%
10 5%


In which case the calculation is beyond me at the moment. I need to blow the dust on my MATLAB skills :)

kostrzak16 wrote:
Also I don't think CREW's ratios are true. Just look at transfer list, there much more 4 star players than 4%. Even in my team 7 out of 23 are 4stars + there are probably no players with LP 3/4 stars or HP 1 star and CREW said "Very rare" which should mean that there are at least some :)


The ratios stated in the news applies only to the players that comes AFTER the feature was implemented. Hence it does not apply to the current transfer market and it won't for 2 more seasons :)

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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Your first calculation doesn't make sense. First of all, you checked it for 4 random chosen skills instead top 4 skills, 2nd of all , there is no way skill maxings have the same probability. There is much higher chance to get 7/8/9 balls than 4/5/6.

Your own skill maxing chances are closer to reality and I would make calculation on them. For example if you have 35% chance for 8+ balls in 1 skill than you have ~58% to have 8+ in at least 4 skills and then every of that skill has 43% to be 9 or 10. If you sum everything up than chance for 9-9-8-8 or 9-9-9-8 is quite high.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
zargan123 wrote:
Does anybody have 4 HP and 3 LP? Or see a player?


I haven't seen a 3 LP , do they exist?

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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darkline wrote:
I haven't seen a 3 LP , do they exist?


I hope powdersnow can say something about it.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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Good job in awakening the co:munity which is smaller then ever before
I don’t think there is a big jump on quality as my most balls by far 18 yo as * in youth training speed... :O

Bill Schultz

Age: 24



I just keep training youths as before so if I like the dude 6th sense style

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[MZUSA]
President
zargan123 wrote:
Does anybody have 4 HP and 3 LP? Or see a player?


I've only got LP 1's and 2's, so far

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
I'm just really confused about this tool, I have 5 18 y/old players, 2 of them have 1LP and they've already ummaxed 8 balls on skills that are not their HP.... then on the other hand, I have players with 2LP and they've maxed on 6s & 7s on skills not determined to be their LP.... so I'm sure there's a difference between 2LP & 1LP but is so subtle that is useless. Then on HP skills nothing is clear neither....

I tried to swap my 16 y/olds based on the stars report but I think I'll probably go back to my old method and just ignore the stars except on extreme cases (like 1 stamina as probably not worth the risk) and just see if I can use the skills given as a general idea on what to train the player.

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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kostrzak16 wrote:
Your first calculation doesn't make sense. First of all, you checked it for 4 random chosen skills instead top 4 skills, 2nd of all , there is no way skill maxings have the same probability. There is much higher chance to get 7/8/9 balls than 4/5/6.

Your own skill maxing chances are closer to reality and I would make calculation on them. For example if you have 35% chance for 8+ balls in 1 skill than you have ~58% to have 8+ in at least 4 skills and then every of that skill has 43% to be 9 or 10. If you sum everything up than chance for 9-9-8-8 or 9-9-9-8 is quite high.


You know what, you are absolutely right! :)

After reading what you wrote I quickly realized my mistake. However, I couldn't really remember how to mathematically reach the desired calculations. So I wrote a simple python program to check every possible 7^10 (282,475,249) combinations. I made the calculations for 10 skills, I know football has 11 so there will be some minor differences there.

Assuming every skill has the same probability at maxing (P(4)=P(5)...=P(10)), then the results are as follows;

Sum of highest 4 skills, possibilities, percentage.
40 ---> 12,057,073 ---> 4.27%
39 ---> 24,217,320 ---> 8.57%
38 ---> 37,288,515 ---> 13.20%
37 ---> 41,894,860 ---> 14.83%
36 ---> 40,531,701 ---> 14.35%
35 ---> 35,848,770 ---> 12.69%
34 ---> 29,164,450 ---> 10.32%
33 ---> 21,630,880 ---> 7.66%
32 ---> 15,246,719 ---> 5.40%
31 ---> 10,153,600 ---> 3.59%
30 ---> 6,384,325 ---> 2.26%
29 ---> 3,794,170 ---> 1.34%
28 ---> 2,122,487 ---> 0.75%
27 ---> 1,121,350 ---> 0.40%
26 ---> 571,585 ---> 0.20%
25 ---> 266,330 ---> 0.09%
24 ---> 112,495 ---> 0.04%
23 ---> 44,200 ---> 0.02%

I can easily make it run for 5 highest and lowest skills but when P(x) changes, it will need some thinking to tinker.

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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I ran the same test for sum of 5 highest skills.

Sum of highest 5 skills --> possibilities --> percentage.
50 --> 2,259,313 --> 0.80%
49 --> 6,516,510 --> 2.31%
48 --> 13,513,410 --> 4.78%
47 --> 20,583,525 --> 7.29%
46 --> 26,302,210 --> 9.31%
45 --> 30,166,656 --> 10.68%
44 --> 31,749,765 --> 11.24%
43 --> 30,742,200 --> 10.88%
42 --> 27,892,465 --> 9.87%
41 --> 23,963,575 --> 8.48%
40 --> 19,606,469 --> 6.94%
39 --> 15,298,755 --> 5.42%
38 --> 11,389,465 --> 4.03%
37 --> 8,100,055 --> 2.87%
36 --> 5,536,525 --> 1.96%
35 --> 3,627,757 --> 1.28%
34 --> 2,273,185 --> 0.80%
33 --> 1,359,895 --> 0.48%
32 --> 775,150 --> 0.27%
31 --> 419,575 --> 0.15%

This gives a 51,16% chance for the 41-45 band which I stated as 3 Star band in my 5 Skill hypothesis, which weirdly match the news (which was also 51%).

However, the 4 Star chance becomes a whooping 24.5% which is 6 times the 4% in the news.

Conclusion: I am back to 4 skill hypothesis which is

4 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is 37 and above (Min 9)
3 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 34-36 (Min 8, Probably 9)
2 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 24-33
1 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is 23 and below.
Note that the sum takes 4 highest skills for High Potential and 4 Lowest skills for Low Potential.

I'll try to find time to check the results for different maxing chances.

Sv: Youth Potential Tool

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I think your sum of four skills theories are right, that it is the way it works. But crew always said that there would be chance included and that it won’t be a perfect analysis. For example “2 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 24-33” could be right but then the calculated value will vary by +-3 so if he has 32 sum then the value used by the scout will be somewhere between 29 and 35. That way a player can have better or worse potential that how it seems

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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2 LP maxed 4 Stamina in hockey. id: 29936744 on TL til tomorow

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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Awful tool for those who train youths, is a spot to not training them anymore👎🏽👎🏽👎🏽👎🏽👎🏽👎🏽

Ant: Youth Potential Tool

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Is it only a mere impression or did is the % of 3 and 4 ⭐️ High Potentials lowered?

Out of 6 football, and 10 in hockey, only one had 3⭐️⭐️⭐️ HP... ( with 1⭐️ Low potential on stamina so useless)...

Ant: Youth Potential Tool

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Wow I presume those are my worst sentences ever 😀

thendric wrote:
Is it only a mere impression or did is the % of 3 and 4 ⭐️ High Potentials lowered?

Out of 6 football, and 10 in hockey, only one had 3⭐️⭐️⭐️ HP... ( with 1⭐️ Low potential on stamina so useless)...

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
thendric wrote:
Is it only a mere impression or did is the % of 3 and 4 ⭐️ High Potentials lowered?

Out of 6 football, and 10 in hockey, only one had 3⭐️⭐️⭐️ HP... ( with 1⭐️ Low potential on stamina so useless)...


Well, it lowered compared to last season when we didn't have the tool.... it's on the news.

Ant: Youth Potential Tool

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That aint what I ment. I ment last 2 weeks...


darkline wrote:
Well, it lowered compared to last season when we didn't have the tool.... it's on the news.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[FLUSA]
President
thendric wrote:
That aint what I ment. I ment last 2 weeks...


Ah ok... it's just random, for me it increased, went from no decent prospects on the first few weeks to a couple of 4HP/2LP today, it's actually the first 4/2 I get with good training speed.

Ant: Youth Potential Tool

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Right... thx.

So in conclusion: the odds will turn again 😀

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[Eesti]
President
I have one prob with the new system in hockey. When ever I go to hockey and want to send youths to TC I have to actually look player scout report and than decide which package to send..with old system you could easily send all youths to YTC and hope for the best. I dont really play hockey but I try to help out hockey by just training players as I can. But i do not have motivation to always check scout report in hockey so I basically send players to which ever camp is available.

I am sure there are similar type of users in football so I was wondering if(and how) it would be good idea to create somekind of a "lazy guy"(like me in hockey) package? So I would not pick training camp for youths randomly..aka one season training shooting..next camp will train...keeping etc. What do you think? Would that be good idea?

My only idea from top of my head is to create somekind of package which involves 3 certain skills and would be always there and would not change?!

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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evosa wrote:
I have one prob with the new system in hockey. When ever I go to hockey and want to send youths to TC I have to actually look player scout report and than decide which package to send...!


As someone who wasn't much fan of the old YTC, I solved that problem by numbering Youths based on their position.
41 + Wings
61 + Defenders
81 + Keepers.

This method saves me tons of time when sending players to training camps.

Ps. I also have an excel file where I keep data of every player I ever had.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[SLCO]
President
@engerek01

I've asked you for your data to test my own teories but you refused so i did it on my own. Conclusions are different and i guess more accurate than yours. I wont share them yet cuz i want to see your results without suggesting the outcome of your research.

A couple of things that imo you assumtped wrong:
1. star in hp and in lp are different and have different ranges of sum of skills
2. according to a very old research done by the community published in polish TZ the possibilities of blocking are:
9:...8%
8:...21%
7:...29%
6:...25%
5:...8%
4:...6%
so P(4) is not equal P(5) etc.
3. It is stated that there will be changes in players development due to new scout report - so the numbers above will change. I done my simulations up to sum of 5 skills (top and bottom) and with some nerfing to posibilities of achiving high numbers of balls in a skill i found imo optimal range of possible sum of balls on top and bottom skills separatly - ranges that correspond with percentages in youth tool news.
4.If we assume that hp/lp stars indeed represent the sum of more than 2 top/bottom skills it would suggest that middle skills should be >= to bottom and <= to top. Due to this it would be neccesary to simulate not just top or bottom but a player as a whole. Cuz a sum of top 4 skills for a 2hp/2lp player would have to have a narrover range than for a 2hp/1lp player.

cheers.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[SLCO]
President
oh and basing on the assupmtions above, we should be albe to predict the sum of all potential stats for a player basing only on hp/lp stars.

the way I did my simulaation was - firstly simulating only minimal ranges for sums form 2 up to 6 skills, then finding a couple of possible bands for number of stars, i've simulated a player as a whole, labeled their lp accordingly, and then seeked for hp bands separatly for lp1 then for lp2 etc...

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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cholee wrote:
@engerek01
....

A couple of things that imo you assumtped wrong:
1. star in hp and in lp are different and have different ranges of sum of skills
2. according to a very old research done by the community published in polish TZ the possibilities of blocking are:
9:...8%
8:...21%
7:...29%
6:...25%
5:...8%
4:...6%
so P(4) is not equal P(5) etc.
...


1. Currently only 2 stars is common between HP and LP and according to my concluded analysis the range is the same.
2. You are late on that one. I already showed here that P(4) can not be equal to P(5) but thanks for sharing that.

Like I said, I concluded analysis and I am confident about the result which I shared in one of my latests posts on this page. Feel free to test it if you wish or try a different approach.

I am currently working on a python code to simulate the outcomes but I must be doing something wrong since it looks like it takes a MONTH to show the outcome 😡 Or I may need to turn back to Matlab but it doesn't help me either since writing the combination code takes way too long. I am getting old for this >.<

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[SLCO]
President
@engerek01

ad 2. Yup, I saw, but i've just wanted to share that data.

Frankly excel is enough to simulate this... and it's much quicker.

As for my results

the best matching for LP bands are:

For sum of 3 bottom skils
1 star - less than 17
2 star - 17 - 20
3/4 star - 21 - 25 (never got higher results after over 30k simulations)

For sum of 4 bottom skills - no possible results.

For sum of 5 skills
1 star - less than 30
2 star - 30 - 34
3/4 star - up to 39 (once in over 30k sim)

For sum of 6 skills
1 star - less than 37
2 star - 37 - 42
3/4 star - up to 49 (once in over 30k sim)

The best matching for hp:

sum of 3 top skills - impossible to match

Sum of 4 top skills -
4 stars - over 36
3 stars - 33 - 36
2 stars - 29 - 32
1 star - 25 - 28

Sum of 5 top skills -
4 stars - over 44
3 stars - 40 - 44
2 stars - 35 - 39
1 star - 30 - 34

Sum of 6 top skills
4 stars - over 52
3 stars - 47 - 51
2 stars - 40 - 46
1 star - 36 - 39


Comparing both bands and thier accuracy to probabilities stated by the CREW my definite results are - Sum of 5 top and 5 bottom skils.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[SLCO]
President
So:
Sum of 5 top skills -
4 stars - over 44
3 stars - 40 - 44
2 stars - 35 - 39
1 star - 30 - 34

For sum of 5 bottom skills
1 star - less than 30
2 star - 30 - 34
3/4 star - up to 39 (once in over 30k sim)

Furthermore if you have a 2hp/2lp player - bands do not overlap and a player is possible to simulate as a whole.

The only way to dissprove this is by finding a 1hp/2lp player or 2hp/3lp etc. According on my results this should be impossible.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[SLCO]
President
Nope sory, it is possible... you can have a player that is maxed out on all 6... 1hp/3-4lp is impossible.

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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@cholee sorry but your calculations are just wrong. Even now you have on transfer list 2 HP player that will have at least 40 in top 5 skills. Instead calculating possible scenarios and comparing it to CREW numbers (chances for maxing were never confirmed) we should just look on the transfer list and make conclusions based on real data.

From my and engerek's observations it is (for HP):

4 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is 37 and above (Min 9)
3 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 34-36 (Min 8, Probably 9)
2 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is between 24-33
1 Stars: Sum of 4 skills is 23 and below.


I am still waiting for someone to find a player who doesn't fit into it.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[SLCO]
President
@kostrzak16

hmm show me?

I am still waiting for someone to find a player who doesn't fit into my theory ;)

Odp: Youth Potential Tool

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id: 208336881

He will be 9-8-8-8-7 in worst case scenario

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[SLCO]
President
only if you assume that the 2 skills that are highlighted in the report are the top 2 skills not random 2 skills from top 4 or 5, otherwise he can easly be 8/8/7/9/7 or even 8/8/6/9/7...

Ce: Youth Potential Tool

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cholee wrote:
only if you assume that the 2 skills that are highlighted in the report are the top 2 skills not random 2 skills from top 4 or 5, otherwise he can easly be 8/8/7/9/7 or even 8/8/6/9/7...


There is no assumption here. HP skills are the highest skills. LP are the lowest. Period. Besides your simulation isn't a simulation. It is a calculation.

Re: Youth Potential Tool

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[SLCO]
President
engerek01 wrote:
There is no assumption here. HP skills are the highest skills. LP are the lowest. Period. Besides your simulation isn't a simulation. It is a calculation.


lol, if you assume that it is impossible to do a simulation like this in excel - your math or excel skills are not as high as you think... or you just don't know what is a simulation... and oh, "period" - wow that's such a great argument! I bet you have a degree of some kid ;)

Form the start all I wanted to do is to help you guys, but you know what? I dont care anymore. You had a problem, I gaved you a solution - take it or leave it. Can it be wrong? sure it can. Cheers.
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