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29-04-2024 04:48
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Season 90 · Week 4 · Day 28
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Football » English » ManagerZone talk

MZ - The downfall

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[WCE]
President
I have always been an advocate for a strong correlation between SOT (shots on target) and result. The logic behind this is that users have a much easier time understanding and accepting a loss if the opponent created more chances. You don't want the game to look like a spreadsheet, so having some results against play is both acceptable and needed in my opinion. An occasional 15-10 = 1-2 is ok. However, 35-5 = 0-0 is not needed. Neither is 18-7 = 5-5(!) or 21-1 = 0-1. Such results make users rage-quit in despair. It shouldn't even happen once in a thousand.

"Apple is like a ship with a hole in the bottom, leaking water and my job is to get the shop pointed in the right direction". This was said by Gil Amelio as he was about to be thrown in favor of Steve Jobs. This quote sticks to my mind when I think of the current development of ManagerZone.

ManagerZone has lost +90% of its userbase during the last 10 years or so. The recent 17th Anniversary Cup had a participation of 8 221, even though it was free to non-CMs. MZ Anniversary Cup 2008 had a participation of 144 637. Of course, a large portion of the 144k of users that signed up for the cup back then, were non-paying users. It does however show how unpopular the game has become. Lets use an optimistic estimation and say that the game now has 15k active users (probably less), and that half of the userbase missed out on the recent free cup. So, 15 000 people in the world are playing ManagerZone today. Is it just in my head, or does this number sound ridiculously low? Nowadays, everybody have Internet. Even a mediocre blog in Norway generates more visits per day than 15k.

I have never understood why certain aspects/features exist in the game today. The form-system for one. You'd be surprised how difficult this is for a new user to understand. And it is also difficult to explain it to them. I have a friend who quit this game years ago because he wasn't able to maintain a good form. A simple solution would have been for Crew to remove the chance of players to become tired.
Another user quit this game when both his strikers broke a leg in the same match. We are talking about +40 day injuries.

If a feature makes 0,1% of the users quit the game, then it should be removed. The leakage has to be fixed! I doubt anybody will quit the game because there aren't enough long-term injuries, or because it has become too easy to manage the form.

Then there is the way deterioration was implemented. You fail to understand your users when you remove balls from their beloved players. Yes, it is a small small fraction of the hole ball, but visually it is 1 ball. Look at the image below for a smoother way of implementing deterioration. I spent 1 calorie coming up with this idea, and it is from the very top of my head. A simple icon that shows how far the deterioration process has come. And voila, we can still compare the skills of players from various era.



This player is fully deteriorated (10 out of 10). As a 32 year old, this icon would be approximately 5 out of 10.

Back to the simulator. Did you know that you can win SOT (shots on target) in 91% of the matches in the top-division of WL, and still get relegated? I won SOT in 20 out of 22 matches, but in 12 of the 20 matches I was robbed. Ergo, in 60%(!) of the matches where I won the SOT, I either lost or drew the game.



In Champions Cup I was knocked out despite winning SOT 18-10. The team who beat me went all the way to the final, where they lost against play. Last season ALL 3 Elite cup-finals went against play. Both in Top Teams Cup, Cup Winners Cup and Champions Cup, the team that had the fewest shots on target won the game. The team that got robbed in Top Teams Cup sold out (Ultra Copos). I was thinking of the same (I was the one who lost the Cup Winners Cup). In U18 NE I managed to draw against the bottom team, despite winning SOT 18-7. The result was 5-5! My 8 ball GK (best I have had in years) with great partials, conceded 5 out of 7 shots.

5 hours ago I lost the final of the Fitness Cup S67 against play aswell. It is interesting, but I doubt I have lost SOT in more than a handful of games this entire season, counting official games. It happened once in the league, once in Victory Cup 2018 (grand final).

Then there is U21 Paraguay. Here there was somewhat poetic justice that they knocked out Sweden. Simulator is a bi-product of Swedish comm... socialism. Points for everybody. An extension of "trophies for everybody" that was implemented a few seasons ago. It seems the current Crew forget that this is a game. You won all your games in 5th division? Sure, here you go, special Elite achievement for you.



If Crew wants less users as a way of reducing work load for their servers and hamsters, then I totally understand why they have created such an unfair simulator. I would however be more than a little bit concerned if I was an investor. I have played a heck of a lot of football manager games, and I have never come close to a match-engine where you can get relegated despite winning SOT in 91% of the games.

Recently there was a significant bump in the cost of PT. You probably have seen a lot of teams that has the username "NO MORE PT FOR MZ". Often written in Spanish. I totally understand the move by Crew, because the expenses remain the same. So when income is reduced as a result of their incompetence and lack of understanding this game, then those few souls who remain in this game has to pay way more to keep this sinking ship heading somewhere, anywhere. After all it is better to sink near the bottom of a coral reef than at 1000 meter depths where your only companions will be jelly fish.

Speaking of 3D. One year, almost to this day, a Crew member wrote the following:
"It's a matter of where we want to prioritize our time and effort. Back in 2000-2010 a 3D was a pretty cool thing for a management game to have, but these days people care less about the glossy surface and more about the depth of content. Developing a state-of-the-art 3D would basically exhaust all our available resources, in order to achieve something that we don't actually think the game really needs."

Fast forward a few months, and Crew could inform the community that all available resources was being exhausted in order to create something that the game didn't really need. 3D in all its glory is up and running again, to the awe of all the investors and 10 managers who watch their games in 3D.



I actually had to limit myself, because there probably is a limit to the amount of text in a post. I had a lot to say about the ultra-boring youth system, the lack of staff, facility, statistics, and how the game feels near identical to the game I started playing in 2003.
Edited: 03-02-2019 05:31
Total edits: 2
Views: 8621 Posts: 406
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Re: MZ - The downfall

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aemi wrote:
Norvegian Noise in particular. An important detail, because the Game and people behind it are swedish. The Norvs never seemed to be too fond of the Swedish. It may be because they were only a colony of Sweden until a hundred years ago or so. But I would not know for sure.

Anyways, nice advertising this hanz is got going on. Kid you not. There was another wise manager on the forum and he was like how much do you think this player is worth, a decent player too, oh and ppl started guessing and then he was like btw he is on the transfer list too.

But hanz is something else. Make a forum thread, create serious drama, lots of downfalls/exiting, insult the crew, insult more users, drama increased, something about SOT etc and then enjoy the exposure by making available the skills of all your seniors players and change your team's name to "Selling Everything - Soon". He is planning to buy a reindeer farm with the money.

Brilliant advertising plan, I will use this to sell my pet beaver. I plan on keeping only my other pet, Pete the kangaroo.

Nice to see that my friend and our winner, theloyalone, managed to win almost a game as a NC at the latest U21 World Cup. I heard that the opposite team, Moldova, still can't get over it.

That being said, I just heard Hanz saying above the following:

*"Me arrogant? I Excel at it..."

* If you don't get the reference, ask a friend to ask another friend...


Reindeer farm. HA.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[WCE]
President
In the current series in WL top-division (S68.1), 126 matches have been played (21 rounds). I have run data from these matches through a tool I created today.

In 38 of these matches a team won SOT (shots on target) by atleast 8.
24 of those games was won by the team that dominated (63,16%)
14 of those games went against play (36,84%)


In other words. If you are in the top-division in WL, there is around 1/3 of a chance that a game you dominate will go against play. It is interesting, because that is pretty much the exact impression I had before I analyzed this data. I told people 65%. This number is likely to be somewhat the same in the later stages of int. cup competitions.

Here is the list over the results in WL TD S68.1 that went strongly against play (14 of 38):
23-12 = 2-2
21-11 = 2-3
23-13 = 0-1
21-13 = 2-3
20-12 = 2-3
23-6 = 1-1
19-8 = 1-1
21-11 = 1-2
16-8 = 1-1
16-6 = 2-3
16-6 = 1-2
26-8 = 0-2
21-10 = 2-3
17-4 = 1-1

If you look at these 126 matches expecting a 100% correlation between SOT and result:
70 of 126 games had a result that was aligned with the result (55,56%).
56 of 126 games had a result that was not aligned with the result (44,44%).


If you look at this with less strictness in the correlation between SOT and result, meaning: SOT difference of 3 or less between the teams should be a draw. SOT difference of 4 of more should result in a victory to the team that won the SOT statistics.
56 of 126 games had a result that was aligned with the result (44,44%).
70 of 126 games had a result that was not aligned with the result (55,56%).


You will probably not see such lack of correlation anywhere else but in the top division in WL, due to all games being so competitive there. Nor in any other football manager games for that matter.

Naturally, if a game has a SOT of for example 15-11, it is still quite even. And it is acceptable that the result in such games swings a bit in each direction. What is more concerning though, is the amount of matches that goes against play when one team in dominating. 36,84% is in my opinion, atleast 30% too much..

Re: MZ - The downfall

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Broken records are the most fun to listen to :))

Re: MZ - The downfall

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Analyzing the WL without considering the individual skills of the players makes this analysis meaningless. How hard is it to understand this? SOT and dominating possession doesn't equal an automatic win if you don't know the skill level of competing players. Let me translate this in Norwegian. I think the problem is a language barrier problem.

Yo Hanzi, Ved å analysere WL uten å vurdere de individuelle ferdighetene til spillerne, gjør denne analysen meningsløs. Hvor vanskelig er det å forstå dette? SOT og dominerende besittelse er ikke lik en automatisk gevinst hvis du ikke vet ferdighetsnivået til konkurrerende spillere.

Sv: MZ - The downfall

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[TDF]
President
That google translation actually made sense in Norwegian, but I’m aware of the fact that Hanzinho is more than capable to read, understand and write English.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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@killerbeeez, please don't make a personal attack.
This is hanzinho's POV and he's entitled to have one.
@hanzinho, as you have opened this thread, it is your duty to guide it into a good direction, otherwise i will close it down.
I hope i made my self clear.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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aurelrabei wrote:
@killerbeeez, please don't make a personal attack.
This is hanzinho's POV and he's entitled to have one.
@hanzinho, as you have opened this thread, it is your duty to guide it into a good direction, otherwise i will close it down.
I hope i made my self clear.


Where did I make this personal attack? I think I'm clearly within my right to disagree with anyone's opinion in this forum just as it is their right to express their opinion. Disagreeing with an opinion is not a personal attack. Come on @Aurelrabei.

But you're right this thread should have been closed a long time ago since it's lost direction and most of the issues have been addressed. Exhaustively.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[WCE]
President
The current WL table look like this:



More statistics:

If you look at this with a 100% strictness between SOT and result, you get this table:
(only dead even in SOT is considered a draw)




If anything less than an advantage of 3 SOT is a draw, you get this table:




If anything less than an advantage of 4 SOT is a draw, you get this table:




CAMP deserves to get relegated, yet they could be winning the series. In only 6 out of 21 games have they won SOT.

Wittek Team is currently in relegation zone, but should have been fighting for the title instead. Coviolo is mid-table, but has been winning SOT the most (13 out of 21).

But more concerning than anything else is the following:

If you only look at matches in WL TD S68.1 (21 games) where one team created atleast 10 more SOT (shots on target) than the opponent, then you get these numbers:
12 of 23 games was won by the team that dominated (52,17%)
11 of 23 games was not won by the team that dominated (47,83%)

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[FLUSA]
President
The problem isn't that the SOT are not correlated to the goals scored, the real problem is how all this is represented on the SIM.

On this game, there are basically 3 type of shots, one on one opportunities that are unrealistically very easy for the keeper to stop, headers from a cross and sometimes diagonal/mid range shots.

On any game like EA's FIFA you can take a lot of SOT but if the quality of the shots isn't good, you're not going to score no matter how many SOT you have, on MZ all shots have the same power & the scoring chances are all the same, no wonder it feels random when you have 10 one on one scoring chances and you don't score and your opponent has just one scoring chance and your keeper fails to stop the ball.

What we need is not a better correlation between SOT & goals, we need to see more variety of shots & scoring chances, one on one occasions should be rare and should be scored more often than not, you should be able to differentiate a powerless shot from a hard shot, etc. etc. etc.... you should be able to see that maybe you didn't won a game despite having more SOT because your strikers are taking weak shots or your scoring chances came from poor chances at odd angles.

In any case, to improve all this it will need a lot of work on the SIM, I mean... not a lot of work on this SIM as this SIM is what it is and no amount of tweaking is going to fix it, we actually need a new and improved SIM altogether.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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darkline wrote:
The problem isn't that the SOT are not correlated to the goals scored, the real problem is how all this is represented on the SIM.


Really like your way of thinking here. Couldn't agree more.

darkline wrote:
In any case, to improve all this it will need a lot of work on the SIM, I mean... not a lot of work on this SIM as this SIM is what it is and no amount of tweaking is going to fix it, we actually need a new and improved SIM altogether.


Just wondering though: could it be that the problem isn't the SIM itself, but the way it is graphically presented?

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[WCE]
President
darkline wrote:
The problem isn't that the SOT are not correlated to the goals scored, the real problem is how all this is represented on the SIM.

On this game, there are basically 3 type of shots, one on one opportunities that are unrealistically very easy for the keeper to stop, headers from a cross and sometimes diagonal/mid range shots.

On any game like EA's FIFA you can take a lot of SOT but if the quality of the shots isn't good, you're not going to score no matter how many SOT you have, on MZ all shots have the same power & the scoring chances are all the same, no wonder it feels random when you have 10 one on one scoring chances and you don't score and your opponent has just one scoring chance and your keeper fails to stop the ball.

What we need is not a better correlation between SOT & goals, we need to see more variety of shots & scoring chances, one on one occasions should be rare and should be scored more often than not, you should be able to differentiate a powerless shot from a hard shot, etc. etc. etc.... you should be able to see that maybe you didn't won a game despite having more SOT because your strikers are taking weak shots or your scoring chances came from poor chances at odd angles.

In any case, to improve all this it will need a lot of work on the SIM, I mean... not a lot of work on this SIM as this SIM is what it is and no amount of tweaking is going to fix it, we actually need a new and improved SIM altogether.

Not all shots have an equal chance of ending up in the back of the net. One-on-ones is the least likely, which doesn't make any sense at all. Hence why short passing tactics is the least effective one. Crew had to lower the scoring output from these chances, or we would have hockey scores in every game.

If all shots had an equal chance of ending up in the back of the net, we wouldn't have had this discussion, as SOT would be more aligned with result.

I believe it was around 2010 when we got a simulator that altered the way defending worked. Before this, it actually looked like football, since there was significantly fewer scoring chances. Defenders did their job! My first comment on that simulator was that Crew had turned football into basketball.

Fast forward 8 years or so, and it is still very much the same simulator. The amount of scoring chances during a game is just waaay too high. 30-40 one-on-one's in a single game is actually quite common. Defenders don't defend, and in order to keep the score down, goalkeepers are turned into super-humans.

We can list all the things we want in a future simulator (and I have a list taller than a regular Chinese NBA player), but lets be realistic about it. The best we can hope for are small tweaks to the current simulator. Ideally they should have spent 8 million dollars hiring a team of experienced simulator developers, coupled with an ex-professional footballer (preferably a creative midfielder...) and built a new simulator from scratch. Sadly this doesn't sound very sexy to an investor.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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aemi wrote:


Nice to see that my friend and our winner, theloyalone, managed to win almost a game as a NC at the latest U21 World Cup. I heard that the opposite team, Moldova, still can't get over it.



Sarcasm duly ignored.

Btw, that was the only WC (in both Seniors and U21) that India has ever qualified for :P And what makes it all the more special is that it came at a time when we're having one of the lowest number of active domestic managers.

But that Moldova win didn't mean much to me..what was truly special was the two 3-0 wins vs England and Switzerland in the Qualifiers.

What about Canada's performance at the latest U21 WC ? Did they manage to win any mat....oops sorry, they didn't even qualify.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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hanzinho wrote:
Not all shots have an equal chance of ending up in the back of the net. One-on-ones is the least likely, which doesn't make any sense at all. Hence why short passing tactics is the least effective one. Crew had to lower the scoring output from these chances, or we would have hockey scores in every game.

If all shots had an equal chance of ending up in the back of the net, we wouldn't have had this discussion, as SOT would be more aligned with result.


Didn't you resolve your own SOT-issue just now? Yes, converting an unrealistic low percentage of chances into goals, but on the other hand also getting an unrealistic high amount of chances. Both invoked by your style of play, and with results fairer than when you only look at one of both sides.

Actually also a bit like games IRL. Dominating teams tend to have less time and space in front of goal than defensive teams on the counter attack.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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smaakeloos wrote:
Really like your way of thinking here. Couldn't agree more.

Just wondering though: could it be that the problem isn't the SIM itself, but the way it is graphically presented?


If it was simply a case of the way it was graphically presented, then you'd be able to win without the bizarre tactics.

The 2D is an accurate representation of the game that is being simulated. The simulator is fundamentally bad.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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We shouldn't call this a simulator, in respect of all the other simulators out there. We shall call this a highly random Swedish algorithm aimed at pissing off the population of Norway, with some additional damage as well.

theloyalone wrote:
Sarcasm duly ignored.

But why frien'? Disloyal yet again?

theloyalone wrote:

Btw, that was the only WC (in both Seniors and U21) that India has ever qualified for :P

Congratulations, it doesn't matter who won as long as we all got a chance to play. As a bonus, you have made history against Moldova, it was like 2-1, impressive.

theloyalone wrote:

What about Canada's performance at the latest U21 WC ?

Canada doesnt need WC, the WC needs Canada. #beavertruth

#roastedDisloyalOne

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[FLUSA]
President
smaakeloos wrote:
Didn't you resolve your own SOT-issue just now? Yes, converting an unrealistic low percentage of chances into goals, but on the other hand also getting an unrealistic high amount of chances. Both invoked by your style of play, and with results fairer than when you only look at one of both sides.


Yep, ironically hanz made a case about how SOT don't correlate with goals scored, only to reason why is it that a team might have more SOT and don't score more goals than an opponent that had less SOT.

In any case, I still stand by my opinion.

Sv: MZ - The downfall

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[TDF]
President
darkline wrote:

On any game like EA's FIFA you can take a lot of SOT but if the quality of the shots isn't good, you're not going to score no matter how many SOT you have, on MZ all shots have the same power & the scoring chances are all the same, no wonder it feels random when you have 10 one on one scoring chances and you don't score and your opponent has just one scoring chance and your keeper fails to stop the ball.

What we need is not a better correlation between SOT & goals, we need to see more variety of shots & scoring chances, one on one occasions should be rare and should be scored more often than not, you should be able to differentiate a powerless shot from a hard shot, etc. etc. etc.... you should be able to see that maybe you didn't won a game despite having more SOT because your strikers are taking weak shots or your scoring chances came from poor chances at odd angles.


Congratulations, darkline! You've just discovered the xG :D Yes, the xG is not reflected through the SoT, and although it would have been reflected, I'm not convinced that there would be a significant correlation between xG and goals.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[WCE]
President
smaakeloos wrote:
Didn't you resolve your own SOT-issue just now? Yes, converting an unrealistic low percentage of chances into goals, but on the other hand also getting an unrealistic high amount of chances. Both invoked by your style of play, and with results fairer than when you only look at one of both sides.

Actually also a bit like games IRL. Dominating teams tend to have less time and space in front of goal than defensive teams on the counter attack.

I don't understand your fixation in my team. Lack of correlation between SOT and result is universal. Hence why I created statistics involving teams currently playing in the top division in WL.

There is no such thing (at top level) as a fixed playing style. You change this from game to game. So do I. I change between wings and short-passing, and have even occasionally played long balls. I might be the only one to win a major trophy playing long-balls by the way (I won the CL final for youth teams (6-2), behind a decoy).

Short-passing is the favorite playing style of new teams. They watch their strikers miss one-on-one's until they are fed up and leave this game. It simply doesn't look like football at all. That is the most concerning bit.

darkline wrote:
Yep, ironically hanz made a case about how SOT don't correlate with goals scored, only to reason why is it that a team might have more SOT and don't score more goals than an opponent that had less SOT.

One-on-one's is less of a scoring chance than a header from a cross, yes. This is not new information. It has even been confirmed by Crew some time ago. I am surprised you didn't know this, and that you claim all SOT is equal.

But it is not 100% consistent. If GK decides to close the shop, he will do so regardless of how the opponent play. Then the next match he is Karius, and concedes pretty much everything. I won 18-7 in SOT at youth level last season, playing wings against short passing. I even had a 8 GK with +30 balls total in goal. Match ended 5-5.

Nothing has a bigger impact on the actual score than the goalkeepers. They are more likely to save one-on-one's, but occasionally they save nothing. This however, is not new. When I won CL for senior teams back in the day (6-2 there aswell), it was strongly against play. The opponents goalkeeper made his first and only save in the 86th minute of the game. In that game I played short-passing against a wing-tactic. Different simulator, but still very much the same.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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Can you all be adults and forget about this nonsense of SOT?

From all the things MZ needs, SOT should be the least to worry about. For Pete's sake, grow up. Pete, the kangaloo.

MZ needs to immediately fix the tools available for the zone, so we can write more articles that nobody reads.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[FLUSA]
President
hanzinho wrote:
One-on-one's is less of a scoring chance than a header from a cross, yes. This is not new information. It has even been confirmed by Crew some time ago. I am surprised you didn't know this, and that you claim all SOT is equal.


I didn't claim that all SOT are equal, I claimed that we have 3/4 different types of scoring chances and that you can't visually determine if a shot is a hard shot, if the shot is well placed or easy for the keeper to get and also, that one on one chances should be rare and scored most of the time, and that because of this, you can't really tell apart a good scoring chance from a poor one.

With that said and just going with what we agree, that not all SOT are equal, then the number of SOT is irrelevant as it's the quality of the SOT of target that matter, same with possession, a short passing team will have more possession of the ball but is less likely to score for reasons we know.... so basically, all the conclusions you're drawing from the stats are fallacious.

The funny thing is that I'm not even trying to defend the SIM as I really think a new one is long overdue.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[AUSNZ]
President
I think Darkline hit the nail on the head when saying it’s nearly irrelevant how many SOT you have but more what type of shot they are.

I’ve had most success in my 10 seasons back playing with wing tactics and especially when my strikers have found space within my opponents defensive structure. This has also been acknowledged with the discussion of shots from wing play naturally have a better success rate than short passing as they are headed or short shots not necessarily one on ones with a keeper that agreed, have the worse success rate.

It’s a great discussion but too many variables are at play for your statistical analysis to be accurate or to take too much from it besides the correlation between SOT and goals is way off.

Variables:
- Style of play
- Mentality
- Player skill level
- Tactics
Many many more factors too and those variables are multi-levelled.

Several more factors too which I’m sure you are well aware of.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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darkline wrote:
all the conclusions you're drawing from the stats are fallacious.


He's got a great point, but we appreciate hanz's spreadsheets. :)

darkline wrote:
The funny thing is that I'm not even trying to defend the SIM as I really think a new one is long overdue.


You of all the people, trying to defend the SIM in such a logical way, I have no more words...

The thing is everytime we would get a new sim, a few users would quit. Now, it looks like people are quiting (Selling everything soon) because we are not getting a new SIM.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[WCE]
President
darkline wrote:
on MZ all shots have the same power & the scoring chances are all the same
darkline wrote:
I didn't claim that all SOT are equal

darkline wrote:
we have 3/4 different types of scoring chances and that you can't visually determine if a shot is a hard shot, if the shot is well placed or easy for the keeper to get and also, that one on one chances should be rare and scored most of the time, and that because of this, you can't really tell apart a good scoring chance from a poor one.

First of all, there are more than 3/4 scoring chances. There are 4/5 variants from corner kick alone, one even resulting in an own goal. So you are over simplifying things, a lot.

You are claiming that what we see in 2D is not what actually happens in the match? If so, you are giving Crew even less credit than I do. In 17 years Crew wasn't able to create an accurate visible presentation of the simulation? I am surprised hearing this coming from an assistant.

I am not saying you are wrong, but it is very unlikely Crew are that incompetent. It should not be difficult to create a visual output of what is being simulated. It is pretty basic stuff if you break it all down. There is a rectangular consisting of X's and Y's coordinates for the players and the ball. Translating this into 2D in an accurate way is surely the only possible method.

If a shot is fired (in the simulation) from a certain coordinate, then it would make absolutely no sense for 2D to show it as a shot from a different coordinate. The same thing with the positioning of the players involved.

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[WCE]
President
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1035170474

This is an interesting game to have a closer look at, and they happen all the time. Short-passing creating too many chances and being inefficient? Nope. It is the other way around in this game. The lack of correlation between SOT and result isn't only related to style of play. As I previously mentioned, if a GK decides to close the shop, he will do so regardless of how the opponent is playing.

Both the man of the match (GK) and striker who missed 18 chances are visible.
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=players&pid=198548084
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=players&pid=198564033

Re: MZ - The downfall

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[WCE]
President
chucky06 wrote:
It’s a great discussion but too many variables are at play for your statistical analysis to be accurate or to take too much from it besides the correlation between SOT and goals is way off.

Variables:
- Style of play
- Mentality
- Player skill level
- Tactics
Many many more factors too and those variables are multi-levelled.

Several more factors too which I’m sure you are well aware of.

Yes, I am well aware of all the variables. I consider myself quite adept when it comes to tactics. My trophy cabinet is a testament to that. As I previously mentioned, I might be the only user to have won a major trophy playing with long balls.

Everybody makes assumptions that this thread is about the lack of correlation in SOT vs. result I am experiencing. It is, and it isn't. I have had great success, even currently. This includes U18 WL top division, U18 NE, U18 CL, Cup Winners Cup, Carioca Cup, Rio de Janeiro 2018, plus a ton of domestic trophies.

And I might be the only one to achieve a perfect team page. Heck, even A+ :D



We can argue all day long about what is the reason for the lack of correlation between SOT and result, and in my opinion it isn't that interesting to be honest. Because we aren't looking at the real issue at hand, which is how new users are perceiving this game.

For new users, this game has to make sense. It doesn't when his striker is missing 20 out of 20 one-on-ones. Most new teams are playing short-passing by the way.. Good luck telling all of them (one by one) that one-on-ones is in fact a shot from midfield. I am sure that will make sense to them..

Just as it doesn't make any sense when you receive a youth with 0,0 balls in keeping, yet the scout report tells you this is a keeper. There are too many of these illogical game mechanics. It is a shame, because this game has heaps of potential.

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[FLUSA]
President
hanzinho wrote:
You are claiming that what we see in 2D is not what actually happens in the match? If so, you are giving Crew even less credit than I do. In 17 years Crew wasn't able to create an accurate visible presentation of the simulation? I am surprised hearing this coming from an assistant.


It seems we have some language barrier here, because I say one thing and you understand something completely different, where exactly did I say that what we see in 2D/3D isn't what happens in the match?

I'm saying that as far as I can tell on the visual representation, all shots have the same power... or can you tell the speed of the ball traveling in the air and determine if the shot is a weak shot or a power shot?

And most long shots travel roughly in the same direction, they usually travel to where the keeper is located, usually when you score it's "through" the keeper, I don't see many shots being placed on the lower or top corner, or a striker chipping the ball over the keeper or passing it into the net on one on one situations, or a 2 on 1 situation in which the strikers pass the ball to his teammate for an easy scoring chance, etc. etc., so the goals come from a very limited variety of situations or at least that's what it feels to me.

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hanzinho wrote:
Yes, I am well aware of all the variables. I consider myself quite adept when it comes to tactics. My trophy cabinet is a testament to that. As I previously mentioned, I might be the only user to have won a major trophy playing with long balls.

Everybody makes assumptions that this thread is about the lack of correlation in SOT vs. result I am experiencing. It is, and it isn't. I have had great success, even currently. This includes U18 WL top division, U18 NE, U18 CL, Cup Winners Cup, Carioca Cup, Rio de Janeiro 2018, plus a ton of domestic trophies.

And I might be the only one to achieve a perfect team page. Heck, even A+ :D



We can argue all day long about what is the reason for the lack of correlation between SOT and result, and in my opinion it isn't that interesting to be honest. Because we aren't looking at the real issue at hand, which is how new users are perceiving this game.

For new users, this game has to make sense. It doesn't when his striker is missing 20 out of 20 one-on-ones. Most new teams are playing short-passing by the way.. Good luck telling all of them (one by one) that one-on-ones is in fact a shot from midfield. I am sure that will make sense to them..

Just as it doesn't make any sense when you receive a youth with 0,0 balls in keeping, yet the scout report tells you this is a keeper. There are too many of these illogical game mechanics. It is a shame, because this game has heaps of potential.


Hi, man. I see your players, your team may be good in your country, so you can be the leader in your league, but not very good in the world indeed! You can watch my team, do you think your team is better than mine? If i play the same tatics to you, i can make more sots than you! The world Ranking is meaningless, if you are in a weak league,it is easy to get a high ranking, so Ranking is not equal to strength.
THE STRONG HAVE NO EXCUSE!

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hanzinho wrote:
The current WL table look like this:



More statistics:

If you look at this with a 100% strictness between SOT and result, you get this table:
(only dead even in SOT is considered a draw)




If anything less than an advantage of 3 SOT is a draw, you get this table:




If anything less than an advantage of 4 SOT is a draw, you get this table:




CAMP deserves to get relegated, yet they could be winning the series. In only 6 out of 21 games have they won SOT.

Wittek Team is currently in relegation zone, but should have been fighting for the title instead. Coviolo is mid-table, but has been winning SOT the most (13 out of 21).

But more concerning than anything else is the following:

If you only look at matches in WL TD S68.1 (21 games) where one team created atleast 10 more SOT (shots on target) than the opponent, then you get these numbers:
12 of 23 games was won by the team that dominated (52,17%)
11 of 23 games was not won by the team that dominated (47,83%)


If i play in shortpassing all in WL, i also can make the most SOTs, this is the key;)

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iloveu wrote:
Hi, man. I see your players, your team may be good in your country, so you can be the leader in your league, but not very good in the world indeed!

I must be a good manager then, since I keep winning trophies and reaching the later rounds of int. cup competitions. Not to mention that I am doing quite well in WL ;)

When I look at your team, I am not impressed either. Honest opinion. Calixto is superb. Else from that, nothing particular. You even have a worse striker than I have (on paper anyway).

But all this is beside the point. This isn't a pissing contest. What matter more than anything else is how managers are perceiving this game. When there is such a lack of correlation between SOT and result, then it deters users from continuing playing this game. Hence why there are hardly any new managers joining the game. If they make it past the initial phase with crappy youth players, then next challenge is accepting lots of defeats against play. Again, new teams for the most part, play short passing..

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iloveu wrote:
If i play the same tatics to you, i can make more sots than you!

Yeah..regarding that :D



I ran 3 scout games against you. 2-0-1. I Won SOT significantly in all games.
You might do better if we both play wings though (for the time being), thats my hunch. But it is insignificant.

If the game was good, there would be more than 10k globally playing it. Surely.
I offer suggestions and solution based on my own gaming experience, and you can either agree, disagree or don't have an opinion on the matter.

But one thing you can't disagree with is the fact that this game has seen better days when it comes to amount of users playing it. The fall has been significant. And there is no amount of MU to mask that fact, in China or elsewhere.

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chucky06 wrote:
I think Darkline hit the nail on the head


whose ? i wish it was aemi's...

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[FLUSA]
President
For a newbie... I'd say the two most frustrating things have to be the 1 on 1 chances that you can't score and the back passing on clear scoring opportunities, the back passing is something that was introduced years ago to "fix" the problem of teams creating too many scoring chances if I recall correctly.

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darkline wrote:
For a newbie... I'd say the two most frustrating things have to be the 1 on 1 chances that you can't score and the back passing on clear scoring opportunities, the back passing is something that was introduced years ago to "fix" the problem of teams creating too many scoring chances if I recall correctly.

Yes, I have seen thunderexpress confirming this in a forum post a couple of years ago. I am not sure it was a good fix to have the back passing end up in the arms of the GK instead. Pick your poison..

In my world, improving the defenders would make a lot more sense. This is football, not basketball. Big chances should be far between.

I remember the first ever senior cup I won, back in 2005. There was 9-1 in SOT, and I won 1-0. Late winner. Not a very eventful match, but it was football.

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[RAF]
President
Nowadays you only see less than 10 SC in youth games - I mean U18.

I totally agree that the sim and its visualisation deter managers from staying in the game, combined with the fact that communities are slimmer and slimmer (which would have compensated, in some way, with amicable rivalries).

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scrap the visualization from MZ!

problem solved!

no more back passes/ crazy crosses/ magnetic goalkeeper gloves etc etc, to upset you

but then again...who would want to play such a game?

...

which one is easier/more profitable ?

a) write a new sim engine for MZ (and also revamp the game)

b) invent a time travel machine so we could all go back to 2002 when some of the skills were not "active" in the SIM and no-one could watch his player perform on the pitch

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The biggest problem outside the fact that the SIM needs a complete overhaul, is the fact that it is an extremely slow game. This is in my opinion a main factor as to why many new users turn away from the game outside all the other issues that has been spoken about here.

And bear in mind that i am not saying patience and hard work should ever go away, because that should always be the main reason as to why you get to the top and perhaps stay there, but the pace of the game needs to be sped up to keep taps with the modern worlds demands for quicker fixes.

The balance between an all out slow game and a game with patience and determination needs to be tampered with.


Problems for new users aswell as for old.
1. It takes 2 years IRL before a Youth player turns 21 years old and because it takes so long it hurts even more when you more often then not watch a players talent go right into the dumpster.

If a season lasted, lets say 1-1,5 months, and the training was set up to match this length it would give the general user aswell as the new users a lot more day 2 day satisfaction. It would also mean that you would have less frustration towards talents going down the drain, simply because it would´nt take extremely long to get a new talent going.

2. There are too many games pr. day just simply to fill out the 3 months an entire season takes. Why do i want to win a cup named anniversary cup, madness cup and so on it is ridiculous and for me all these trophies just waters out the meaning of winning something important.

If they would cut out those, in my opinion, useless tournaments and focus on domestic tournaments and international cups for top teams sutch as the champions league it would hold a lot more meaning.

What i would like to see for senior, U18, U21 and u23 is this:

- Domestic League
- Domestic Cup
- International League (WL)
- International Cup (Champions League + maybe Euro League)

and no more than that.

Both point 1 and 2 could be realized with a season that takes way less IRL time

In my opinion it would make the game more attractive and at the same time you still need to put in hard work to stay at the top and patience would still be a major part as well.

The game is simply too slow and too filled with meaningless cups in my opinion and especially the extremely slow part has been a turn off for all of my friends that has tried to get into this game. And please do not misunderstand i am not saying that i want the complete opposite off the game, but it should be sped up.

Lastly i know that there are other major issues, but making a season more compressed and dropping all those meaningless cups, would probably be an easier way of giving the game som new life and especially the new users that then would experience a faster game.


It would also mean that the pricing of the game has to change with losing all these different cups.

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President
tojosular wrote:
The biggest problem outside the fact that the SIM needs a complete overhaul, is the fact that it is an extremely slow game. This is in my opinion a main factor as to why many new users turn away from the game outside all the other issues that has been spoken about here.


Spot on, T., spot on! It has however been considered as part of what this game is about - patience to the extreme - and I have never seen anyone from Crew, in my many years, considering this even as a remote possibility.

Reducing 13 weeks to 6 or 7 means having 4 league games a week, basically every other day. For sure this would require a lot more activity for a manager than some might want to allocate and I don't know if this won't be a major upset.

Secondly, you are right that the meaning of value in MZ has declined a lot since all these cups were added yet they might not be so easy to drop by Crew since they surely add to the budget. I don't know to what extent but I surely know managers who don't have CM yet enter some of the official cups (National, Division or Season) on a regular basis.

I'm curious to see a poll created in the MZ Fed., how users would appreciate doubling the speed of the game. Very curious...

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I'm on the opposite side on this one.

I'd rather have a longer season with more teams per league, simply because I need more rivals in my game. the short season with the fast training simply do not satisfy my needs to be "challenged as a manager"

but a longer season would mean a huge overhaul in training and economic system of the game in order for them to be compatible with the longer season (if we're happy with their current status that is)

so...forget that I ever mentioned it :P

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[FLUSA]
President
For me the speed of the game is perfect, having quick seasons and everything speed up would be really boring for me, for me is rewarding to win a league after battling it 3 months, if the seasons where shorter they'd lose value IMO... for shorter seasons, you can always play the world league.

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Speed is ok only issue here there are to many things to pay for it should be easier:

League + NC free
Club membership + youth/world league
Tokens for other cups

No stupid Tours to get free money if u can’t manage go to play fifa

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[WCE]
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I also think the pace of the game is good. If new users prefer faster action, there is WL with games every day.

And if you want success fast, there are youth competitions where you pretty much can compete with the very best even from day one (through custom youth setup). Clean games without any financial unfair play.

Ideally, new teams should receive new youths automatically, with an even age-spread. Plus being signed up for the U18 WL.

I agree with maccorosso, as I feel there are too many things to pay for. More stuff should be included in the CM package. Or maybe splitting the CM into several different packages. Silver, Gold and Platinum, like we had back in the day.

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[WCE]
President
What Crew need to do, more than anything (if they aren't already), is to map the behavior of all the new users. Most of them don't continue playing this game, as we know. But how far did they get?

What percentage of the new users ordered new youths? What percentage watched a game in 2D? Data like this will tell you everything you need in order to improve conversion.

For example: If most new users quit this game immediately (within 1-2 minutes), then it means that the first impression they got was quite bad, or atleast not good enough to keep them interested. It could be the UI, the graphical presentation of the skills (balls). It could be a number of things. What was the very last MZ page most of these users visited before they logged out for good?

Crew have all the data available in order to improve conversion, given they analyze it. You locate the culprit, alter/improve it, and then monitor future users and how they respond to the alterations you did. If positive, then there might very well be a new culprit around the corner as these users move onward in the game. Then you locate and fix that one using the same method as previously, and rinse and repeat.

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I am sensing the downfall of this thread. The drama will be missed.

I, for one, can only hope that the Aussies will keep up, to replace the Norvegian Drama.

Rinse and repeat.

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[WCE]
President
No threads will live forever.

"Time is a sort of river of passing events, and strong is its current; no sooner is a thing brought to sight than it is swept by and another takes its place, and this too will be swept away." - Marcus Aurelius

You will have to do some serious scrolling in order to find a topic that has had more views and posts. Currently close to 200 posts, including posts from several Crew members. This is way more than I expected since the English speaking forum is very inactive currently. In November there are only 19 active threads on this forum, which is less than the amount of days that has passed.

During my time here on MZ I have rarely seen a thread with so many posts and views as this one, despite the userbase being significantly higher previously. This thread is very constructive, since most participants offer solutions/suggestions to problems that exist in this game today. This can (and most likely will) be used by Crew in their ongoing effort to improve the gaming experience for their customers. Ergo is this thread a very important one in that aspect, despite your best attempts to sabotage it with childish/silly comments from day 1.

It is written "Norwegian" by the way, not "Norvegian". That said, I have no idea why you again and again go off topic with such comments. My nationality is of absolutely no relevance here.

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hanzinho wrote:
No threads will live forever.


Except the ones pinned at the top of the section. But you are right, this one won't.

This thread had so much potential, until arrogance got in the way. I would recommend some people on this thread to take it easy on Excel Spreadsheets and read a book, maybe on "Constructive Criticism". I don't know any in Norvegian, but maybe my friend, the kaster guy knows.

Don't pat yourself on the back too much because of the views and posts of this thread. Half the views are mine enjoying the drama with popcorn dipped in organic Maple Syrup. The other half the views is that romanian guy, and No it's not the fine dude aurel, but the other dude who is stuck in the past and can't come back.

You may recall, actually you won't, you are too biased, that I took the thread fairly seriously, until you and basically that romanian guy screwed it up. It was no longer how to improve the game, but rather how to insult the crew and a few other users. Even I have limits. I would joke about them all the time, but I don't see the point of insulting. Unless it's in a joke.

But to keep it balanced, I think you have great input with the wrong attitude.

Removed offensive text.

evosa
Edited: 30-11-2018 00:06
Total edits: 1

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President






MZ is just one big joke.

I shouldn't be complaining, since I beat a strong Chinese team against play in the later stages of Endurance Cup to qualify for the QF. But I don't want to win matches like these. I would have been perfectly fine if I had lost that game, but in return won the prized cup game (despite it having a lower value than Endurance).

These 3 matches above were 3 out of 4 key matches for me today, and all went strongly against play. Neither involved wings against short (Chinese changed to wing tactic after 5 minutes).

My GK made 13 out of 13 saves against one of the strongest teams in the world. Yet, against a weak team from Greece he conceded 2 out of 2 shots. As I previously have written, it is not so much about playing style as it is about keepers making 0% saves in one match, yet in the next one they park the bus and save 100%. You never know if your GK will turn up and perform like Banks or Karius.

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[WCE]
President
Messing around with the sim code can potentially damage the balance, and there is certainly no guarantee it will be an improvement.

But coding GK (10 ballers) to be WAY more consistent in their performance would go a long way in strengthening the correlation between SOT and result. That is a quick and safe fix to this situation.

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Just like in real life. If it was me, I would sell everything, soon.

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[RAF]
President
hanzinho wrote:
But coding GK (10 ballers) to be WAY more consistent in their performance would go a long way in strengthening the correlation between SOT and result. That is a quick and safe fix to this situation.


Until now the balance scale was evened up by puting, each and every time it got uneven, some more weight on the counter pan. This is why we got to such a mess on every pan that the smallest move could tip the scale altogether and the only solution is a trap: you can not go back but only continue evening up tyhe scale by adding more and more weight.

I honestly am no programmer and I'm quite amazed how things in that world move (currently having my website redone and it's so unbelievably hard for programmers and coders to understand things!!!) however if you want things done the right way, THERE IS NO EASY AND QUICK AND SAFE FIX - it's just one more patch on an already over-patched piece of clothing.

And I'm afraid it stopped being a coat very long time ago, now it's just a collection of patches in a certain familiar shape... And I don't see any money for buying a new coat or some piece of material to have one sawn for us...

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[WCE]
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Another WL (S68.2) has been concluded.

If you created 4 or more SOT than the opponent, then there was a 45,45% chance you won the game and a 54,55% chance it would end with a draw or with a defeat. Not much of a reward for getting the tactic correct.

If you dominated the game (10 or more SOT than opponent), you had a 66,67% chance of winning the game (18 vs 9). That is better than in S68.1, where it was almost dead even (12 vs 11). Still, 66,67% is way too low in my opinion. I would like to see this number well into the 90's.

The actual table:




If anything less than an advantage of 4 SOT is a draw, you get this table:



So yet again, the winner of WL TD isn't the team that performed best. It is just the team that was the most lucky. Bulldog got 13 victories, despite winning SOT only 8 times.


Here are some of my favorite results from S68.2 WL TD:
Good luck explaining these with short passing being inefficient..











Notice how the results are defined by the goalkeepers. That 9-0 defeat is utterly absurd. Same team won another game 6-2 despite only having 8 SOT..

In S68.3 I will be present in the top division again.
I am not looking particularly forward to that... ;)
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