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24-05-2022 13:33
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Season 82 · Week 8 · Day 50
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3 TS same pool, x times

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In Summer Cup U23, again ! It is statiscally impossible to be random unbiased.

The binomial formula tells that 3 TS in à pool of 10 for 5000 players is:

(3,10)*p^3*(1-p)^7

where p=144/5000

This leads to a 1/500 probability of such an insane oddity. The problem is it is not the first time it happens several Times each season.

This proves beyond any doubt the pools are not composed randomly, but unfairly for the big teams.
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Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

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And BTW it is also even more unfair for the other teams that are unlucky enough to fall in such pools of absurd strength repartition. They can never qualify. Their odds must be divided like 100 times.

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

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Im not like expert in possibility counting but if we draw 512 pools for U23 Summer Cup shouldn't we land on 1 pool of death if the possibility is 1 out of 500?

So what I understand there should be one of these groups in every tournament but you being placed on it has 2% chance.

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

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jere92 wrote:
Im not like expert in possibility counting but if we draw 512 pools for U23 Summer Cup shouldn't we land on 1 pool of death if the possibility is 1 out of 500?

So what I understand there should be one of these groups in every tournament but you being placed on it has 2% chance.


You are exactly right. As a TS I have 1/50 odds of being in such a situation.

(2,9)*p^2*(1-p)^7

p=144/5000

The point is I am certain that I fall more than once per season in similar situations.

That is far more than the 2% in thus précise case.

I even remember a recent U21 cup with 3 leaders of TS (Roncourt included). I had to beat the #1 of Brasil in the last game to qualify. (Did not detect the dangerous situation until the last game)

And 2 top (#1) TS teams were culled at pool stage ! A leader of d1 (swedish d1) qualified with me.

The odds can barely be written here except by using negative power of 10.

So if we identify far more than 1 other pool with 3 TS there is something highly suspect. There should 0 1 or 2, in huge majority of such cups if everything is random.

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

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https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Put
0.002
500
4

in the fields. (This is an valid approximation of the situation)

This means that if 5 pools contain 3 TS we are in a very unprobable repartition, (0.3% that 5 or more such pools occur).

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

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[FSSMZ]
President
A couple of seasons ago, one TS team and two from div 1 were drawn alongside each other in the same U18 National Cup group. 691 teams in total, most groups had 5 teams (this group had 5 teams).

It's not the same, but let's say we want 3 div 1/TS teams in the same group.

p = 48/691 (let's assume all of the div1/TS guys signed up for the National Cup)

So, (n, k)*(p^k)*((1-p)^(n-k)) = 5!/(3!2!)*(48/700)^3*(1 - 48/700)^2 = 0,0029

Slightly better than your case, but I was just bored.

Re: 3 TS same pool, x times

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douglaskampl wrote:
A couple of seasons ago, one TS team and two from div 1 were drawn alongside each other in the same U18 National Cup group. 691 teams in total, most groups had 5 teams (this group had 5 teams).

It's not the same, but let's say we want 3 div 1/TS teams in the same group.

p = 48/691 (let's assume all of the div1/TS guys signed up for the National Cup)

So, (n, k)*(p^k)*((1-p)^(n-k)) = 5!/(3!2!)*(48/700)^3*(1 - 48/700)^2 = 0,0029

Slightly better than your case, but I was just bored.


Yes of course in 20 years of game you can see everything.

My point is it's far more often than it should I am certain.

I could check the other TS randomly and see their pools if none replies and sans "same thing here"

As I said, if 5 other pools like this exist then something very abnormal happens.
 
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