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23-04-2024 18:47
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Season 90 · Week 4 · Day 22
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How to manage randomness

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Another round with results created by a random generator. This time it went my way. Had bet on a draw, but came out with a pretty big win.
Is it only me who thinks MZ has become too random?
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Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
No, it is not just you.. I'd say that ship is pretty full currently.

3 of my key matches yesterday (SOT vs. actual result):
28-3 = 0-0 (Official cup)
11-19 = 4-2 (Official cup)
21-8 = 0-2 (NT Norway)

The 2-0 loss meant Norway isn't going to the World Cup.

I don't want a 100% mathematical correlation between SOT and goals, but there should be a much stronger correlation than currently. A rare upset is ok, but it happens way too frequently. I have days where like 5 out of 6 key matches goes against play.

Re: How to manage randomness

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hanzinho wrote:
No, it is not just you.. I'd say that ship is pretty full currently.

3 of my key matches yesterday (SOT vs. actual result):
28-3 = 0-0 (Official cup)
11-19 = 4-2 (Official cup)
21-8 = 0-2 (NT Norway)

The 2-0 loss meant Norway isn't going to the World Cup.

I don't want a 100% mathematical correlation between SOT and goals, but there should be a much stronger correlation than currently. A rare upset is ok, but it happens way too frequently. I have days where like 5 out of 6 key matches goes against play.


seen pretty much deserving teams lose out on WC spots this season :P and i guess Sweden is leading that lot :P

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
Yeah, Sweden NT probably tops it all. And I would dare anybody to claim they have weak strikers and GK ;)

Re: How to manage randomness

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hanzinho wrote:
Yeah, Sweden NT probably tops it all. And I would dare anybody to claim they have weak strikers and GK ;)


I guess they do! ;)

Re: How to manage randomness

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Without random, only the best teams will win all the time, giving no chance to the rest.
My self, i would never got a no restriction official cup if it wasn't for the random.
To answer threads question :
- Do your job as manager and leave the results to the Sim's hand. Results will come.

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
I doubt there are many who doesn't want any degree of random. Upsets in football happens, its life, and there is a certain charm to that.

But it is the amount of randomness which is a problem.

Re: How to manage randomness

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[RAF]
President
hanzinho wrote:
I doubt there are many who doesn't want any degree of random. Upsets in football happens, its life, and there is a certain charm to that.

But it is the amount of randomness which is a problem.


AMEN!

I don't know anything about statistics but I also feel that lately the game is decided elsewhere then on the pitch. The differences of play between one game to another are so big that it's just impossible to predict anything.

It should indeed be like a Russian roulette, with some degree of randomness, but the gun poking us daily in the mouth does not have 1 bullet out of 6 but more like 5 out of 6. And my head hurts from the many holes in it...

Re: How to manage randomness

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[FLUSA]
President
I just lost this game:

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009271887&tid=139824

And then I found this thread :D

Re: How to manage randomness

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I'll just leave these two here (yeah, I know their friendlies and not league matches, but if I lose a league match in the first round, I usually end up changing tactics in the 2nd round)

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009020477&tid=1254726

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009029991&tid=1254726

darkline wrote:
I just lost this game:

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009271887&tid=139824

And then I found this thread :D


ouch!


"How to manage randomness?"

you don't! you simply embrace it, shout in the forums to let some steam out and then move on, because after all those years you're certain now that your only hope is a new SIM :P

Re: How to manage randomness

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*their = they're

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
Aldebran: Both of those matches are relatively even in SOT. I see nothing wrong with the result ranging from 4-1 to 1-4.

Re: How to manage randomness

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you're talking only about the SOTs that's why

I'm talking about the *drum roll* general randomness in the SIM

the one that makes your team in one match behave like a top tier team and in another like a div4 one

for me the problem this season is not the randomness of the SOTs, it is (again) the inconsistency of my team in general

and to add some sugar on top, the stats in those games appear normal, yet either my keeper or my striker(s) will simply "fail"

tl;dr I've been hit by the "random keeper" modifier again this season
you know...the one that gets the MVP in one match and in another he simply can't even stop a snail from passing the goal line

again, this is frustrating not because I end up losing, but because simply there's no way to evaluate neither the performance of your team as a whole nor the performance of individual players

I'm just 2 steps away from starting ignoring every stat in MZ and let it all go on automatic

ps. yes I like random and I don't have a problem with having my team hit bottom low once in a while

pss. let's hope I'm getting a new "modifier" next season (MZ myth no.36) :ppp

Re: How to manage randomness

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aurelrabei wrote:
Without random, only the best teams will win all the time, giving no chance to the rest.
My self, i would never got a no restriction official cup if it wasn't for the random.
To answer threads question :
- Do your job as manager and leave the results to the Sim's hand. Results will come.


enough said

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
Aldebran: Then what should I be talking about? The weather?? :D

SOT is the most accurate way of telling if a match was even, relatively even, or if one team dominated.

In your examples, I think it is perfectly ok that the score ranged from 4-1 to 1-4. Basically, there was two evenly played matches, where each team got their win. Fair and square.

I feel that everytime we have this discussion, somebody gives examples which kinda proves the opposite of intended. This time it was your turn ;)

Re: How to manage randomness

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[FLUSA]
President
aurelrabei wrote:
Without random, only the best teams will win all the time, giving no chance to the rest.


That's not exactly true, there isn't a huge difference in player quality on most top league teams, if you have two similar teams regardless if one is slightly better than the other, the result of the game should be influenced by tactics and not just throw a random result....

I get random results all the time, here's another one I just got on the U21 league

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1008234642&tid=139824

It's a 5-1 loss, with 17 for my team and only 6 against... but, I don't get upset anymore, for most games I just put my team on autopilot and let the SIM decide the winner.

Beantwortet: How to manage randomness

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How is this result random ? The number of shot never indicates the quality. Second your strikers are marked, his are free. Ergo he will get higher qualtity chances. I also guess his offensive is also better, which makes your strikers being marked even worse. Just my 2 cents.

I could even go more into depth, but not sure if it necessary.

Re: How to manage randomness

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[FLUSA]
President
mzplach wrote:
How is this result random ? The number of shot never indicates the quality. Second your strikers are marked, his are free. Ergo he will get higher qualtity chances. I also guess his offensive is also better, which makes your strikers being marked even worse. Just my 2 cents.

I could even go more into depth, but not sure if it necessary.


That's all good, but your analysis contradicts the experience I have with this tactic, this is a pretty standard Uxx tactic and the defense my opponent played is the usual defensive setup I always play against, just to put it in context, with this tactic I won five of the last six U18 National Cups, two U18 seasons Cups, two U18 Top America League and my team is currently playing on the World Top U18 league..... so trust me, there's nothing wrong with the quality of the shots or that the strikers are marked.

Not claiming to have a great team, maybe my opponents team is better but if that's the case, the stats of the game should be different. Also, my main striker isn't amazing, but he has 10 shooting and good speed/stamina, my team took a total of 21 shots and scored one goal, my opponents striker took 5 shots and scored 5 goals.

I'm not complaining btw, but trying to explain this with logic is futile, just accept it for what it is and unless it makes you feel better, don't try to look for a tactical explanation because it doesn't exist.

Re: How to manage randomness

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SOTs in mz stats are a disgrace

Play a certain short passing tactic and you end up having lots of them

Play a certain wings tactic and depending on your opponent's tactic you might end up with far less SOTs for your team and still end up winning big time

I don't think I'm using wrong examples. I might not be able to make sense because of my lack of using perfect english, so bare with me please.

The main problem for me nowdays is about "what am I doing in this game?"
And it all started after the fuss in the forum about the random keeper behaviour and that crew decided to introduce/emphasize it in order to "spice things up"

Am I not supposed to be mentaly challenged when I playthis game? To try and outwit my opponent with tactics and formations?

Or am I supposed to do what everybody else does and then just hope for the best? (ie hope for the dice to roll in my favour)

It's one thing losing to a better team. It's another losing because of bad luck and it's another, in a completely different existential plain (:p), when the results are simply flip flopping all overthe place!

Mind you, this isn't a rant about me losing some games...because the ones that I won might simply have been the misfortune of my opponent!
This is a rant about not having a clue anymore about what's going on with this game!

Then again...it could all be because I'm a dimwit
:p

Beantwortet: How to manage randomness

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To say its not a problem that your strikers are marked, is in my eyes wrong simply how all the sim ever worked. That marked strikers still have a pretty decent game they have to be better in Ball control than defender in tackling ( oversimplfied)
Your Strikers are younger than his best and all 3 have the combined worth of his Striker that scored the goals. It indicates that this Striker is really big talent.

I had the same discussion in the german speaking forums. A user tested with his tactic (great counter for mine) against my existing one. I changed some things in midfield and offense + setting. Testmatch number 7: :0 for him. Testmatch with my adjustments 2:1. Note hist team is way more expierenced and way better.

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009526158&tid=133561
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009526862&tid=133561

I know you cant take out a randomness but still there is much power in tactical adjustments. The only thing i havent had sucess with the use other defensive setups than the 5 common ones.

Somehow it seems like many old manager cosy up to just one set of tactic. Maybe i am just to hyped because i took a long brake. But still i always had sucess when i adjusted tactics.

Re: How to manage randomness

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[FLUSA]
President
mzplach wrote:
Your Strikers are younger than his best and all 3 have the combined worth of his Striker that scored the goals. It indicates that this Striker is really big talent.


He probably is a great striker, but his statistics show that on the league he scored a total of 11 goals in 5 games, of the 11 goals he scored, 5 of them where today against my team with just five shots on target...

Anyway, it could well be that his team is superior to mine, but if that's the case it's illogical that my team had 17 shots on target vs 6 from my opponent and that I had 55% of the ball, according to the stats my team was far superior.... point is, if he really has a better team and he won because of his superior players that's fair enough, but the stats need to show that and they need to start making sense.

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
aldebaran wrote:
SOTs in mz stats are a disgrace

Play a certain short passing tactic and you end up having lots of them

Play a certain wings tactic and depending on your opponent's tactic you might end up with far less SOTs for your team and still end up winning big time

I don't think I'm using wrong examples. I might not be able to make sense because of my lack of using perfect english, so bare with me please.

The main problem for me nowdays is about "what am I doing in this game?"
And it all started after the fuss in the forum about the random keeper behaviour and that crew decided to introduce/emphasize it in order to "spice things up"

Am I not supposed to be mentaly challenged when I playthis game? To try and outwit my opponent with tactics and formations?

Or am I supposed to do what everybody else does and then just hope for the best? (ie hope for the dice to roll in my favour)

It's one thing losing to a better team. It's another losing because of bad luck and it's another, in a completely different existential plain (:p), when the results are simply flip flopping all overthe place!

Mind you, this isn't a rant about me losing some games...because the ones that I won might simply have been the misfortune of my opponent!
This is a rant about not having a clue anymore about what's going on with this game!

Then again...it could all be because I'm a dimwit
:p


Spear attack (short passing) tend to create more chances per goal then most wing tactics. Agreed. It is one of the reasons why I play wings at both U18, U21, U23 and senior level. I always have this in the back of my mind when I read SOT.

However, when a team wins SOT 28-3, then the numbers don't lie. They tell the full truth. Team A completely dominated the game. You might watch a game where the SOT is like 15-11, and unless you actually look at the stats, you might not know which team had the slight edge. I really don't understand why some people complain about losing such matches. We aren't playing a spreadsheet game. The simulator need to be a little bit unpredictable, although not quite as wibbly-wobbly as it is currently.

I actually like the simulator more than I dislike it. They just need to reduce (not remove) the amount of matches that goes seriously against play, and then I am fine with it. The simulator offers a lot of fun for those of us who like to set our tactics according to the opponent. It's like an advanced version of rock-paper-scissors. With a new simulator, I fear they might not get this balance correct. T-tactic beats wing. Wing beats stick. Stick beats T-tactic. Then you have sub-variants of these again, which makes the tactical battle quite complex and interesting.

Re: How to manage randomness

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hanzinho wrote:
...They just need to reduce (not remove) the amount of matches that goes seriously against play...


+1

for me that's the major point of this (and previous) arguments about the sim

As for a new SIM, well we really do need one that offers more tactical options for managers (see red cards for example)
And after that they can have a go at fixing the random/setplays/throwins/offsides/freekicks/silly_keepers etc

the game needs a major change that will make you "feel" that your decisions matter 100%. The older you grow to this game/sim, the more you feel that in the end, most of it is down to luck

just my thoughts

Re: How to manage randomness

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Oh man ! That's how the Sim shows you who's the boss :D

Re: How to manage randomness

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[FLUSA]
President
aurelrabei wrote:
Oh man ! That's how the Sim shows you who's the boss :D


Yeah, yesterday was one of those days in which the SIM decides to give you a hard time, I also lost this game on the U18 Top Division

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1008183940&tid=139824

11 shots for my team, 4 for my opponent, I lost 2-1 and this was an important game since I was 1st playing against the 2nd on the Top U18 league.... oh well, nothing I can do about it, hope today is a better day for my little vultures...

Re: How to manage randomness

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[RAF]
President
I think that it's clear for everyone that the problem is the fact that managing something you don't know or escapes management turns this game into a complicated game of Backgammon. And it's not advertised as such...

WE ALL LOVE THIS GAME for it's degree of inpredictibility and the challenge to find/grow the best suited players for the most efficient tactics. YET WE ALL HATE THIS GAME because there are tooooooo manyyyyyyyy games in which no reasonable amount of random can justify the result (especially when SC are so out of place) and because we see players, from one game to the other, behaving so erratic in the same position, situation, sometimes against similar teams.

THIS GAME CAN NOT BE A GAME OF HOPING FOR THE BEST, it should be a game of PREPARING FOR THE BEST. Yet, somehow but it seems that moreso lately, IT'S A GAME OF EXPECTING THE WORST!

Personally, I'm just sad that I'm in a point where, after having won stuff by using my head mostly and having luck least, I can't now but hope to be lucky the most because any preparations I make seem futile: tactics, players, scouting etc.

Re: How to manage randomness

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@hanzinho

I'm guessing this is the kind of examples you're talking about (regarding SOTs and final result)

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009497902&tid=1254726

:D

Re: How to manage randomness

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aldebaran wrote:
SOTs in mz stats are a disgrace

Play a certain short passing tactic and you end up having lots of them

Play a certain wings tactic and depending on your opponent's tactic you might end up with far less SOTs for your team and still end up winning big time

I don't think I'm using wrong examples. I might not be able to make sense because of my lack of using perfect english, so bare with me please.

The main problem for me nowdays is about "what am I doing in this game?"
And it all started after the fuss in the forum about the random keeper behaviour and that crew decided to introduce/emphasize it in order to "spice things up"

Am I not supposed to be mentaly challenged when I playthis game? To try and outwit my opponent with tactics and formations?

Or am I supposed to do what everybody else does and then just hope for the best? (ie hope for the dice to roll in my favour)

It's one thing losing to a better team. It's another losing because of bad luck and it's another, in a completely different existential plain (:p), when the results are simply flip flopping all overthe place!

Mind you, this isn't a rant about me losing some games...because the ones that I won might simply have been the misfortune of my opponent!
This is a rant about not having a clue anymore about what's going on with this game!

Then again...it could all be because I'm a dimwit
:p


Been saying this for a while now. The game is dying or feels stale because managers don't feel they have control anymore. Tactics means nothing and player quality means nothing. Where's the challenge in that?

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
aldebaran wrote:
@hanzinho

I'm guessing this is the kind of examples you're talking about (regarding SOTs and final result)

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009497902&tid=1254726

:D


Thats more like it!! ;)

Re: How to manage randomness

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aldebaran wrote:
@hanzinho

I'm guessing this is the kind of examples you're talking about (regarding SOTs and final result)

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009497902&tid=1254726

:D


I've been on both sides of winning and losing games like these multiple times. I try to put the losses out of mind because there was nothing I could have done to stop them. When I win against the odds I scratch my chin and wonder how did that happen. Like this game, I got the tactical paper, scissors, rock guess horribly wrong and somehow still won

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=993120701&tid=142740

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
Yeah you lost the tactical battle in that game, but the simulator still decided to reward you the victory. Quite a common scenario.

I met a team twice 20:00 last evening, in two competitive matches. We played the same wing variant in both of the games. I lost 2-1 and won 7-1. It makes perfect sense, except it doesn't ;)

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1008975509

And there went the U18 WL TD title. 13-4 = 0-1.
Good start of the day.
I had a draw almost equally as bad, just a couple of rounds ago.

Yesterday I had this happening in 2 out of my 3 key matches. I even lost a game 5-2 despite creating more shots on target than the opponent. The only game I won, I won just 1-0 despite a complete domination (26-10).

The simulator in MZ is probably the most unfair one I have come across, regardless of what manager sports-game I've played. There was one back in 2005-2006 that was equally crap, but that was also in the MZ realm. If you received a corner kick, it usually meant a goal against (counter attack).

Are you sitting on the fence wondering to give this game another go? Don't.
That is my advice. I wouldn't, if I had known just how crap this simulator is when I made a comeback roughly a year ago. I knew games went against play, but I didn't know the magnitude of it. There are other online football manager games out where there is a much bigger reward for mastering the game.

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
2nd key game of today:

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1008928248&tid=110476

Re: How to manage randomness

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they will change (again) some modifiers when the new season starts
and we will all calm down (probably) for a bit

until the circle starts all over again :P

Re: How to manage randomness

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[RAF]
President
aldebaran wrote:
they will change (again) some modifiers when the new season starts
and we will all calm down (probably) for a bit. until the circle starts all over again :P


I'm out of the circle, it's the only solution!

It's too damn frustrating to not be able to control anything but only hope for the best. I don't know what they did and when they did it - this simulator, even if ping-pong-ish, was not this random in results when it was implemented. It got worst and worst and worst and I, for one, don't care to play it anymore. The first time I sold out naturally, at the end of a cicle; now, I am just too annoyed to be dissed by a machine laughing sarcastically every time it shatters game after game, cup after league after...

Re: How to manage randomness

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୧༼ಠ益ಠ༽୨ *less RNG or riot* ୧༼ಠ益ಠ༽୨

:pppp

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009922544&tid=110476

Another nice one. 16-7 = 1-3.
Final of the Cup Winners Cup.

**** this game.

Re: How to manage randomness

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[RAF]
President
hanzinho wrote:
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009922544&tid=110476

Another nice one. 16-7 = 1-3.
Final of the Cup Winners Cup.

**** this game.


Being from the future and all, I would have expected you knew this already and accepted it years ago... You had more than 300 years (331, to be precise) to prepare for this!

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
That is why I am trying to get Crew to remove this excessive "evening the playing field feature" that they are so obsessed about keeping in the simulator, because I have seen what happens if they aren't fixing the simulator. I am not going to reveal too much about the future, as it can cause a rupture of the space-time continuum. But I can say this much, there won't be a 19th Anniversary Cup.

There is no end to how good MZ could have become in the year 2349... I just hope my effort isn't in vain, as I could have gone back to 1980 and prevented the death of John Lennon instead. I would hate being stuck playing Space Invaders though, so 1980 wasn't really an option I have to admit.

If I were an investor / board member at Power Challenge AB, I would kindly (with a sarcastic and relatively condescending tone - British accent works well here) ask for a report that would suggest that a random simulator is in the best interest of the game and thus the company. After all, I would prefer paying users to stay, not to leave. A company should try to keep their paying customers happy. Call me a strategist, or someone with atleast a minimum of common sense.

Nothing is more demoralizing than a result strongly against play in a key match.
Winning a match against play, although it helps, doesn't nullify that effect.

The better you become at this game, the more often you will be robbed of matches. In any other online game they have mechanism in place that will encourage their users to spend more time and money to try to be successful in the game. In MZ, it is actually more the opposite, and it baffles me. Perhaps that is the very essence of why MZ is struggling to attract new users and keep existing ones.

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
This one from my WL division made me laugh:
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1009961900

Winning SOT (marginally) and then losing 7-3.
At this level there are no weak goalies.

Re: How to manage randomness

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How do I manage randomness you asked?

Vodka.

But seriously, I fired my players, coaches, and demolished my stadium. No more randomness. Now every game is 5-0. Beat that crew!

#BeatTheSystem
#NoKangaroosInTheBar

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1022794410

And yet another team is selling out :/
Great for the transfer market. Not quite so good for the game...

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President
BTW: Speaking of Elite..

Previous season (S66), all 3 cupfinal games in the Elite cups went against play.
Champions Cup, Cup Winners Cup and Top Teams cup was all won by the team with the least amount of shots on goal.

Uuesti: How to manage randomness

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[Eesti]
President
Haha

https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1026117712&tid=347376

Re: How to manage randomness

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hanzinho wrote:

It's like an advanced version of rock-paper-scissors. With a new simulator, I fear they might not get this balance correct. T-tactic beats wing. Wing beats stick. Stick beats T-tactic. Then you have sub-variants of these again, which makes the tactical battle quite complex and interesting.


Found this whole forum thread while I was whining about the irrational ratio about the shots on target / scoring chances versus deafats/winnings and it is good to see that I am not the only one. Read all from top to bottom and totally agree , and appreciated especially the comments of hanzinho, alderabaran and darkline.
Just have one question to hanzinho though :
Just to understand exactly which tactic is which , because we use different names in my language and in our forums.
I will be appreciated , T-tactic and stick, which one is 3-2 triangle defence, which one is flat defence , just to let me understand right...
Thx.

Re: How to manage randomness

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[WCE]
President

This is only the beginning my friend. You better get used to such results.
They don't go away after buying a world class keeper and/or striker (I have tried..).

The first and only result I checked from my WL group today (as I am preparing for the opponent):
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1026104908&tid=110476
So you see, your game wasn't a freak occurrence.

But never a day without the simulator doing me in aswell:
https://www.managerzone.com/?p=match&sub=result&mid=1011223475&tid=110476

jedy22 wrote:
Found this whole forum thread while I was whining about the irrational ratio about the shots on target / scoring chances versus deafats/winnings and it is good to see that I am not the only one. Read all from top to bottom and totally agree , and appreciated especially the comments of hanzinho, alderabaran and darkline.
Just have one question to hanzinho though :
Just to understand exactly which tactic is which , because we use different names in my language and in our forums.
I will be appreciated , T-tactic and stick, which one is 3-2 triangle defence, which one is flat defence , just to let me understand right...
Thx.

jedy22:
In my vocabulary:
"The stick" is a narrow tactic with a 3-2 defense.
"T-tactic" has the shape of the letter "T" (upside down). 4 or 5 in defense. Then narrow attack. 4-2-1-2-1 or 5-2-2-1 are the most common variants. I haven't seen anybody else using this name (T-tactic), so it is perfectly understandable that it is not in your vocabulary! :)

Re: How to manage randomness

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Are people still complaining about the sim
 
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